Dislocation Of Empirical Research Based On The Erer The Rmb Real Exchange Rate

A rational level of exchange rate is always key to allocate resources effectively between trade and non-trade departments by any exchange rate system, lots of empirical study proved that if exchange rate remains irrational in a long term, it will cause huge loss of social welfare, incorrect signal which affect public expectancy and unstable economy。In this sense, equilibrium exchange rate become the core of exchange rate theory, furthermore, is the main ground to judge whether exchange rate is rational, and whether a reform of exchange rate policy is needed.Based on putting forward a improved RMB ERER model, in the light of ADF unit root test and cointegration technique, the author uses Chinese macro-economic data from 1985-2005 to evaluate the deviation of RMB's exchange rate, make the following conclusion:(1) In the 21 years, the indexes of GDP, terms of trade, net foreign assets, variety of currency supply, tax refund rate of export, tax surplus amount and opening degree of trade affect the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate significantly, but productivity,capital account, current account and tax rate of import not.(2) Actually, there are several times of mis-aligned fluctuation of RMB's real exchange rate. In recent years, RMB's real exchange rate is underestimated in a small range ,this result does not agree the issue that"RMB's real exchange rate is seriously underestimated", which is claimed by some developed countries. Therefore, China should take a gradual reform of exchange rate policy under the pressure. A proposed way of reform is also put forward in the paper.