Research On The Risk Early-Warning Mechanism In Overseas Business Of China Petroleum Enterprises

Following with the high-speed economic development,there has been huge petroleum demand in China which has become the second largest petroleum consumer of the world.However,China is short of oil resources.And the contradiction between supply and demand has been increasingly conspicuous.In some areas,local authority has to limit the petroleum supply.For safeguarding the national petroleum security,there is urgent need for China to seek overseas oil resources.Meanwhile,facing the fierce competition of the international petroleum enterprises,domestic petroleum industry has to cope with a lot of difficulties,such as the low share of oil resources and high cost of crude oil production,etc.All these factors restrain the survival and further development of China petroleum enterprises severely.Therefore,China petroleum enterprises should carry out international development strategies and explore overseas markets.As China petroleum enterprises go abroad,the overseas business is facing severe risks test due to the complicated and changeable international market environment,as well as the subjective understanding limitations.In recent years,due to the negative impacts of economic crisis, geopolitical situation and the fluctuation of U.S dollar currency, international petroleum prices fluctuated greatly.The overseas business of domestic petroleum enterprises has been experiencing grave potential risks. Therefore,from the perspective of national energy strategy security and the development of the domestic enterprises,it is imperative to build the risk early-warning mechanism in overseas business of China petroleum enterprises.In this thesis,comprehensively employing the risk management theory,early-warning management theory,systematology,cybernetics and fuzzy mathematics,it is proposed to study the macro-environmental risks in overseas business of China petroleum enterprises.This thesis is organized in five parts.In the first part,it overviews research ideas,research methods and overall framework.Then the theory of enterprise risk early-warning is reviewed and summarized to determine the theoretical basis of this study.The third part analyzes the current status of China petroleum enterprises'overseas business.And it summarizes the prominent features of the risks in overseas business of China petroleum enterprises,and applies the environmental analysis method to identify and analyze the macro-environmental risk factors of the overseas business.The main task of the fourth part is to elaborate how to build the risk early-warning mechanism in overseas business of China Petroleum Enterprises,through establishing the early-warning indicator system,the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and the responding procedures of early-warning.It is the core of this thesis.Finally,this thesis uses a specific case(empirical studying on the risks of JS "CNPC-International Aktobe Petroleum".)to prove the effectiveness of the mechanism which has obtained in the fourth part.The "light alarm" warning conclusion is obtained and the responding proposals are suggested based on the analysis results.The aim of this thesis is to approve that the risk early-warning mechanism of overseas business is very practical to China petroleum enterprises.It is also very useful for Chinese other enterprises to explore overseas markets.Meanwhile,this thesis,which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods,adopts many operational research tools.In a sense,it can provide a reference and reflection for the theoretical researches on the application of risk early-warning.