Research On Prepayment Risk Management Of Personal Housing Mortgage Loan In China

Since 1998, the business of personal housing mortgage loan has been developing rapidly in China. Recent years have witnessed the general trend of prepayment in some regions . Commercial banks' attitude towards prepayment, which was quite acquiescent at the very beginning of the business of personal housing mortgage loan, has now changed to restrict and control the prepayment. Thus, the study and control on the prepayment risk has become a key research subject of the risk management of personal housing mortgage loan. Under the background mentioned above, by means of empirical study on the collected data of personal housing mortgage loan, this thesis identifies the main factors that influence the risk of personal housing mortgage loan at present in China, thus to try to provide theoretical and technical parameters for commercial banks to effectively manage the prepayment risk of personal housing mortgage loan.In the introduction, the issues of background and meaning of this topic are elaborated; then followed the literature review of prepayment risk of personal housing mortgage loans, which reviews and sums up domestic and abroad scholars' researches on this topic; and at last it presents the research methods and structure of this thesis, and also clarifies the key issue which is going to be studies. In chapter two, the issue of prepayment risk is put forward based on the current operation of personal housing mortgage loan in our country. Then several key concepts that permeate the whole thesis are elaborated, and the motivations of prepayment of personal housing mortgage loan are analyzed. The last part of this chapter summarizes the international experiences in prepayment risk management of personal housing mortgage loan, which are instructive to the variables selection and management strategies in the empirical study of this thesis. The third chapter firstly introduces the status quo of the prepayment of personal residence mortgage in our country, and then analyzes management modes of prepayment of personal residence mortgage adopted by our commercial banks, and finally illustrate the major problems existed in the prepayment risk management of the commercial banks in our country.Empirical study requires correctly variable selection and reasonably designed model. By learning from the similar researches done in foreign countries, in the chapter four makes variable selection and quantization of the credit records in Commercial Bank in X X city, Jiangxi province. And in terms of model selection, this thesis chooses some prevalent methods in foreign countries, such as factor analysis and discriminant function analysis method. By using the software SPSS16.0 in discriminant function function analysis, this part analyzes prepayment risks of personal housing mortgage loan and comes to its conclusion.In chapter five, according to the conclusions drawn from literature review and empirical study, it explores the countermeasures for Chinese commercial banks to improve their prepayment risk management of personal housing mortgage loan.