Study On Urban Land Price Index Workout And Land Price Pridiction

Along with the advancement of land market's marketable ability in our country, the land price has received more and more recognition from the government, the enterprise and individual. Command of the change of land price, not only can serve for the land agent to lead social investment, but also may control the supply-demand relation of city land from anglicizing the change tendency of land price. Then the government can frame the land management policy. Therefore accounting the land price index and land price accurately, and using model to forecast land price's tendency scientifically are extremely essential.Through studying the correlation theories such as land rent theory, land value theory, index theory, system theory, this thesis uses qualitative and quantificational methods to study land price calculation, land price index workout method, and the land price forecast, then takes Suzhou City as an example. The thesis includes 3 parts:In the Part 1, the land price index method was researched. Based on an analyse of the content of land price index, this thesis detailedly introduces an process of urban land price index workout which is suitable for the characteristics of land market in our country. The steps of the process include land price unification, land districts partition, market points selection, average land price calculation, land price index account, ect.In the Part 2, the forecast methods of land price are discussed. There are five land price prediction models such as time-series model, Markov model, the neural network model, the causal relationship model and grey GM (1,1) model. Every one of them has their own characters and applicability. The urban land price's influencing factors are uncertain and uncomputable. This thesis considers grey GM (1,1) model can overcome these shortcomings of urban land price.In the Part 3, takes Suzhou City as an example to start the empirical research. Studies on the urban land price index workout process and current urban land price situation of the city. Then summarizes the urban land price influencing factors on economic development, land supply-demand situation, national and local policies, urban planning. Meanwhile uses GM (1,1) model to predict the land price from 2007 to 2010 in Suzhou City. The predict results show that the the predicton of commerce land residence land price are in conformity with the city's development of economy and land market. Because of the adjustment of industry land policy, industry land price pridiction is noneffective...