Study On Multi-Actor Uncertainty In Urban Emergency Networks

Urban public emergency events constrain the stable development of the cities. The urban emergency management for these events have the characters of the complex system, and there are some substantive uncertainties, strategic uncertainties and institutional uncertainties in this system. However, these uncertainties are the stagnations for the urban emergency managers, and how to analyze the uncertainties in the urban emergency networks is the primary problem that they have to face with.This research focuses on the analysis of multi-actor uncertainties in urban emergency networks, and using this method in the Songhua River pollution event to validate the effectiveness. In the dissertation, a concept model on policy game in the context of urban emergency management is built up. In this model, the factors which influent the game are analyzed, and the evaluation standard is given. The method of analyzing the uncertainties in multi-actor system is successfully applied in urban emergency management. Concerning the characteristic of urban emergency management, the actors, game and networks are analyzed. The case study on Songhua River pollution event is studied in using this method based on the software Dynamic Actor Network Analysis.This research formulates the methodology of analyzing the multi-actor uncertainties in complex urban emergency networks. For the theoretic value, the value of the people, the environment and the institution factors in urban emergency management have been considered; For the application value, this research can be used in the area of disaster reduction, crisis management, emergency management, and dynamic decision, especially for the context of existing uncertainties, building of multi-actor networks and game analysis.