An Empirical Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of The Jinan's Real Estate Price

As one of the pillar industries, the stability of real estate development is related to the people's livelyhood. Since the year of 1998, the real estate industry has experienced a period of rapid development. Especially in recent years, the investment and the price of the real estate keep rising. As a whole, the real estate market of the country develops healthily and rapidly, and keeps the equilibrium of supply and demand. But in some districts, the price of real estate increases too fast with irrational supply structure. In order to keep the Chinese real estate market sustainable and healthy, it is essential to imply macro-control policies to regulate the real estate price. To make better macro-control decision, we must identify which factors have effects upon the price of real estate, which influencing factor is more important than the others.There are many researches focus on the real estate price in metropolis like Shenzhen and Shanghai. But few studies have been taken about the real estate price of Jinan. most of which confine to the qualitative analysis. With reference of previous research, this paper addresses the factor analysis on the real estate price quantitatively and qualitatively. In this paper, a econometric model was established and tested, and the author analyzes the price of Jinan real estate empirically on the basis of the panel data from 2003 to the first half of 2007. The results show that, among the factors which are convenient for quantizing, the main factors in sequence are outstanding loan of banks,land price,building materials price,interest rate,local GDP,available income per person, development investment in real estate, area of developed land in the last year, average wage. Regression equation in this paper shows that the real estate price of Jinan is positive correlated with building materials price, outstanding loan of banks, and each unit increase of the building materials price index would result in 0.252 unit increase of the real estate price index of Jinan, every 1 billions' increase of outstanding loan of all banks would cause 0.13 unit increase of the real estate price index of Jinan.Based on the researches above, the paper finally gives some advices for the investors to perform better in the real estate market and for the regulators to enforce the supervision and regulation of real estate market.