Research On The Financial Early-warning Of Commercial Enterprises

With the deepening of Chinese market economy system reform, commercial enterprises in our country have been developed rapidly. Especially after joining the WTO, the development of commercial enterprises is increasingly becoming more modernization, internationalization and information. The commercial competition is gradually serious. As a result, the incertitude of the market environment is gradually obvious. It is a common fact that more and more commercial enterprises are down to bankruptcy and liquidation because of financial distress. Therefore, it is very necessary that we take some measures to strengthen the financial early warning.This thesis includes four main parts: The first one summarizes the domestic and international early warning theories and the current study situation. The second one introduces the financial crises concept and its characteristics of commercial enterprise. The third one makes a deep analysis of the cause that may lead to the failure of commercial enterprise. The fourth one mainly studies the methods of the financial distress prediction. In the quantitative analysis aspect, based on the traditional financial index, the thesis puts forward a series of cash flow prediction index and proves that these indexes are efficient by analyzing the cases; in the qualitative analysis aspect, aiming at the characteristics of the commercial enterprise, the thesis introduces non-financial index and qualitative factor such as external economic environment, internal organization system, the development strategy, human resources and customer resources etc. for dynamic early-warning.