ACE Simulation Study On Formation Mechanism Of The Consumption-investment Ratio

In past more than 20 years, China's ultimate consumption rate has been very low, which has seriously constrained the expansion of consumer demand and the upgrading of the consumption structure, but also seriously hampered China's sustained and rapid economic growth.The problem of the consumption rate can generally be attributed to the proportional relationship between consumption and investment. In exploring the problem,domestic scholars are committed to describe the phenomenon and propose countermeasures and suggestions ,so theoretical research is not thorough enough and lacks convincing explanation. In particular,on micro formation mechanism of the consumption-investment ratio,the academic community lacks in-depth study. In addition,from the perspective of modeling method,the traditional macroeconomic models ignore micro-individual acts,therefore causing mutual separation of macro-economic analysis and micro-economic analysis,so for a long time,on mechanism of the interaction between consumer behaviour and macroeconomic operation,economic scholars could not make an effective exploration.Agent-based computational economics (ACE) resolves long-standing separation of macro-economic analysis and micro-economic analysis. The application of ACE to establish the micro-simulation model can establish the organic relationship between macro-economic analysis and micro-economic analysis. So far,domestic academics have not specially adopted ACE model to conduct study on the proportional relationship between consumption and investment. Therefore,the author draws on the basic idea of ACE,using Java computer simulation technology,creates an economic simulation model based on behaviors of consumers,behaviors of the government and behaviors of enterprises,in order to explore the micro formation mechanism of consumption,investment and economic growth.In this study,the author conducted a large number of simulation experiments and used statistical methods and econometric methods to make an analysis of economics based on the experimental data, finally drawing some enlightening conclusions: On average,consumption trends to luxury goods will eventually produce positive effects on the consumption and long-term economic growth,but the positive effect is not absolute; From the dynamic perspective,consumption and investment may show a mutual promotion and dynamic situation of rosing all together; the Government's policies of revenue and expenditure play a positive role in coordinating consumption and investment so as to ensure rapid and healthy economic development; Consumers'dominant position in the market can become more obvious because of the lack of government action; For the same initial state , the macroeconomic results emerged after long-term operation may not be the same,so that the economic system is not a simple mechanical system,but rather a complex adaptive system. Through this study, the author finds that consumers play a decisive role in the form of the consumption rate and other macroeconomic variables, and that the final result is jointly decided by consumer, enterprise and the Government.