The Analysis Of The Optimal Rate Of Resident Consumption In China

Consumption is the most durable drive for the healthy development of national economy. For a long time, China has a rapid growth of consumer demand, China’s consumption rate and residents consumption rate, however, has been in a low, and a declining trend. Compared with developed countries, China’s consumption rate is about30%lower, and lower than the similar stage of development of the brics15-20%. In2010, our country residents consumption rate is34.9%,the brics countries of India, Brazil, South Africa and Russia were63.2%,64.2%,56.9%and63.2%respectively. In recent years, China’s investment efficiency is low, the average incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) for3to5, while developed countries ICOR for1to2. Demand structure imbalance is the imbalance of economic structure is an important content and the manifestation of the consumption rate is low, the investment rate is on the high side.Therefore, since the Asian financial crisis in1997, based on the understanding of the consumption rate is low, long-term government encourage consumption policy execution. Instead of consumption rate, however, did not improve, continue to fall. Academia about high and low consumption rate and how to improve the consumption rate become a hot spot for research and discussion. Many scholars through the international consumption rate and residents consumption rate, think that China’s consumption rate and residents consumption rate is low. Weak effectiveness of policies to promote more and more scholars think deeply about consumption problems, there are more and more scholars begin to question the low consumption rate of judgment. Some scholars start from macroscopic aspects by estimating the optimal consumption rate to judge the actual consumption of consumption or consumption. This kind of judgment is more reasonable, but the optimal consumption rate is difficult to solve. This paper estimate the optimal consumption from microcosmic Angle, and through the study, the optimal ratio of consumption to the change of mechanism, the operation situation of judgment of consumption to find policies and measures to improve the ratio of consumption.Residents or household consumption the microcosmic basis of the formation of consumer behavior is the ratio of consumption. In two period model, this paper according to the family utility maximization to estimate the optimal ratio of consumption to China since the reform and opening up, and once again, based on the analysis of the urban and rural residents consumption rate of the contribution of residents consumption rate is low. Expected income, interest rates and consumer preferences are the important factors that affect the consumer decision-making, by changing these variables, this paper studies the optimal ratio of consumption to the change of mechanism. Finally, the article also from the perspective of economic development, analysis of the current our country residents consumption rate is low regularity. In addition, the micro consumer behavior is influenced by macroeconomic environment. According to the result of the judgment of residents consumption rate is low, the economic development, economic growth, industrial structure evolution, the income gap evolution and income distribution structure aspects explains the inherent law of the residents consumption rate is low.Through these studies, this article mainly to the following conclusion:First, ultimately consists of government consumption rate and residents consumption rate, consumption rate of consumption is the main part of the consumption rate. Government consumption rates remained relatively stable, the final consumption rate decline is mainly caused by the ratio of consumption to fall.Second, the current income, or are expected future income, price expectations, decided to the family budget constraints, the slope of the line rate, determine the indifference curve in the shape of a household consumption preference is the main factors influencing the household consumption choice decisions. In the two period model, first of all find out C-D utility function, and then a two period model, this paper combined with the influencing factors for estimating the optimal residents consumption rate.Third, the actual consumption and the comparison of the optimal ratio of consumption to indicate that from1978to1990, the reality of our country residents consumption rate and the optimal ratio of consumption to basic anastomosis;1991years later, the actual residents consumption rate has been below the optimal consumption rate, and the gap has widened gradually. The ratio of consumption to deviate from the rate shows that the problem of low ratio of consumption to more and more serious in recent years.Fourth, the optimal ratio of consumption to further decomposed into optimal urban residents consumption rate and optimal rural residents consumption rate, the use of city and township residents consumption rate has contributed decomposition of low ratio of consumption to out of the city and township residents consumption rate of the ratio of consumption to the contribution of low degree. The results show that the low consumption is mainly caused by urban residents consumption rate is low.Fifth, by changing the expected income, interest rates and consumer preferences, and studies the optimal ratio of consumption to the change of mechanism. Results show that the expected income increase, the optimal ratio of consumption to rise, raise interest rates, the optimal ratio of consumption to fall, but the effect of the ratio of consumption to the change of the weak; When consumer preferences immediate consumption, become more important and immediate consumption, the optimal ratio of consumption to increase, and changes of consumption effect is more obvious. Improve the social security system, stabilize consumer expectations, can increase the ratio of consumption.Sixth, the ratio of consumption to fall with the gradual characteristic in the process of economic development Large proportion of secondary industry and increase income gap, is not conducive to improve the ratio of consumption. Increase the proportion of household income in national income allocation can improve the ratio of consumption.Seventh, build a long-standing mechanism to expand consumer demand, to ensure that residents rapid revenue growth and improve the investment environment, improve the social security system, is to improve the ratio of consumption, the transformation of the mode of economic development and the effective ways to promote the economic sustainable development.The research of this paper has made the innovation of the following four aspects:first, estimate the cobb-douglas form of utility function; Second, to estimate the residents, the optimal ratio of consumption to China since the reform and opening up, and the optimal ratio of consumption to specific values from year to year, has the continuity of the year; Third, isolated from urban residents consumption rate and the rural residents consumption rate of the contribution rate of residents consumption rate is low, put forward urban residents consumption is mainly caused by the low consumption rate of view; Fourth, under the optimal consumption rate formation mechanism, analyzed the expected income, interest rates and consumer preferences change to the influence of the ratio of consumption.But this paper estimates the optimal consumption of urban residents and rural residents consumption rate method is too simple, ignoring the differences in urban and rural residents’ consumption behavior. This is the deficiency of this article, and the direction of further research in the future.