The Estimation Of Agricultural Productivity Based On The AEZ Model And Response To The Cultivated Land Changes

China is an agricultural country which has more people, but less cultivated land. Food production has been the major issue harassing the country and common people's lives. Especially with the population increasing, cultivated land decreasing and environment degeneration, food production becomes the important factors restricting the sustainable agricultural development. In order to settle this problem, the key is promoting the productivity using the current cultivated land besides controlling the population increasing and cultivated land transferred. We can provide the scientific basis for the country or region agricultural development plan by estimating the food productivity.This study applies the AEZ model and the climate, soil and input level data to estimate the 1990s' agricultural productivity potential. We take the climate factors, Social environmental factors and economic factors into account. Using the future climate data simulated under the mode of Hadley Centre's HADCM3, we estimate the future agricultural productivity in 2010 and 2020. This study uses the DLS model simulate the land use changes in 2010 and 2020, and analyzes the impacts of agricultural productivity brought by the cultivated land changes.This study indicates:①we can applies the AEZ model and spatial data to estimate the agricultural productivity effectively.②Although there are fluctuations in interpersonal in the 1990s, the agricultural productivity has the overall upward trend.③The agricultural productivity in 2010 and 2020 will increase to some extent due to the impacts of climate factors.④Although the cultivated land changes will bring a certain degree of negative impact, its impacts concealed by the agricultural productivity increasing of each unit.⑤The concludes of study provide the scientific basis for making the policy for the land uses and agricultural production. In this study, we get some innovative results:①We express the agricultural productivity in every raster.②This study includes many subjects, and realizes synthetic application.③Using the future climate data to estimate the future agricultural productivity, and analyze the cultivated land changes' impacts on agricultural productivity.