Research On Convergence Of Regional Economic Growth In Jilin Province Based On ESDA

Regional economic growth is a complex system in which all factors affect each other. The hot spots of economic growth theories are how to interpret economics growing with the time and how to interpret the difference of the regions.Neoclassical growth theory raised the definition of convergence, which means that the growth rate of under developing regions is faster than that of developed ones. Moreover, new growth theory revises the defeats of neoclassical growth theory and improves the estimated results of convergence through integrating the growth factors, such as human resource, R&D, learning ability, etc.The paper was mainly research the spatial autocorrelation with the Jilin Province regional economic growth, whether the absolute convergence or the conditional convergence which forecasted by the Neoclassical growth theory existed in Jilin Province, and got the convergence path by analyzing the cointergration and causal-effect relationship.First of all, based on ESDA in GIS, the essay analyzed the data of Jilin Provincial per capita GDP from1985-2006, and revealed strong evidence of spatial heterogeneity.Secondly, according to the convergence conception of the Neoclassical Economic Growth Theory and New Economic Growth Theory, based on Sala-I-Martin convergence inspection model, it proved the existence ofδ-convergence and absoluteβ-convergence haven't emerged in the period 1985-2006 in Jilin Province. However, when this period was divided into three stages: 1985-1992, 1993-2000, and 2001-2006, there wasδ-convergence among the regions in Jilin Province from1985-1992 and 2001-2006. Moreover, there existed the absoluteβ-convergence since 2000. There also existed the conditionalβ-convergence from 1985-2006, where nongovernmental enterprises development, human capital, FDI, savings rate, regional finance level and so on influenced the regional economic grown rate obviously. But at the other stage, there was no conditionalβ-convergence.Finally, the essay used Granger causality test, according to the VAR model, to get a collection of illustrative plates of convergence path and give some policy issues.The paper ended with a research summary and concluding comments.