The Study On Risk Evaluation System Of Construction Programme

It has been more than fifty years history of project management development. The advantages of project management accelerate the theoretical and practical development of project management. However, with the increasing quantities and expanding scale of projects, some project management theories can't meet the development need. In such circumstances, researchers and practicers on project management put their eyes on multi-project management.Programme management is integrated and coordinated management for multitudinous interactive projects, aiming to gain more benefits. It is a very important part of multi-project management and trend for project management development. Risk is everywhere and risk management is an absolutely necessary part in the process of project management. Compared with single project management, Programme may face more uncertainty in the process of programme management. As a result, we have to put more attention on the recognition and management of risk in programme management. Under such circumstances, this paper researches the risk evaluation system of construction programme management in China from the perspective of constructors. The main content of this paper is as follows:Firstly, based on the related literature reviews and combined with the characteristics of Chinese construction project, the dissertation summarizes five big risks including thirty-five specific risk factors in construction programme from multitudinous risks using expert interview.Secondly, according to the result conclusion of expert interview, this dissertation establishes the survey questionnaire of construction programme risk evaluation system and testifies the reliability and validity of the questionnaire.Thirdly, through the application of statistics software SPSS13.0 to the survey data, main factors under each main class of risk are generated using factor analysis.This paper named these factors according to the content they included. Finally a set of complete construction programme risk evaluation system is conducted.Fourthly, according to the conducted construction programme evaluation system, this paper evaluates the risk of a specific construction programme using Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation, and gives some measures to deal with risks.In a word, the research of this paper helps to promote constructors' recognition of risk of programme and provide some reference for the risk management of construction programme in China.