The Research On Yinchuan City Sprawl Based On SLEUTH Model

Yinchuan is the capital city of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The economic development in this area was accompanied by increasing in population, driving dramatic urban expansion and land use change, the process of urbanization continuously speeded up. This thesis applied dynamic urban growth model SLEUTH of cellular automaton (CA) in researching the process, trying to verify the applicability of SLEUTH model in Asian inland city, discuss the effects of different spatial resolution to the precision of the model, determine the best spatial resolution and calibration metrics in model calibration, localize the parameter sets of SLEUTH furtherly, rebuilding the process of urban expansion evolution in this area during last 30 years, and its driving mechanisms were discussed. On this basis, three forecast scenarios were set to predict the dynamic urban expansion in the future 40 years in Yinchuan based on the New Urban Plan and polices of regional development, an urban management pattern which was more beneficial to the sustainable development of this area was proposed.This thesis extracted the urban extents of Yinchuan from the remote sensing images of year 1978,1991,1999,2002 and 2006, assisted by several urban transportation map,slope,hillshade and all kinds of social and economical statistics, the spatial and attribute database of studied area during 1978-2006 were built up. Taking the thoroughly reviewed literatures of urban model as well as urban cellular automata model etc. and the principle about urban expansion,cellular automata and SLEUTH model as basis, the applicability of SLEUTH model in Asian inland plain city was verified by model debug and running firstly; Secondly, the best spatial resample resolution of model calibration was determined as 60 meters in this region through comparing the simulation under different spatial resolution, and the best fit Lee_Sallee metric was determined after comparison, the parameter sets of SLEUTH were then localized, the process of urban expansion evolution in studied area was rebuilt. And at the same time we found that the main coefficients that affect urban expansion of Yinchuan were dispersion coefficient,breed coefficient and spread coefficient, another important affecting factor is road gravity coefficient; Thirdly, three forecast scenarios were created based on different urban-plan principle and urban development policy, the dynamics of urban expansion were predicted in the near 40 years. It was believed that the most ideal expansion mode that best fit the future urban development was the scenario which was based on both the urban-plan and the moderate protection of urban ecological environment, whenever from the metrics behavior to coefficients change and the predict results, also the more reasonable and beneficial one to the smart growth and sustainable development of future expansion; Lastly, the driving mechanisms of urban expansion evolution during the past 30 years were analyzed, pointed out that the quickly increased economic and population were the fundamental driving factors of this urban growth, urban pattern and expansion form was greatly affected by the alteration of government policy, especially the registering uniform as well as the housing uniform and land use, the positive effects of urban-plan is weaker. According to the problems that existed in the urban development now, some advices and countermeasures on current urban spatial development and future time were put forward.This research will be helpful to explore and enrich the theories and methods for geographic system modeling, to promote the theories for urban land use evolution, to enrich and promote the extended applied research of CA in urban modeling, to develop the dynamic urban spatial evolution model research furtherly, providing a sound background for supportting and assisting in urban planning and land use planning polices as well as sustainable development in Yinchuan. There are certain innovations in theory and methodology, and applied value for real urban land use system modeling of this thesis.