Research On Urban Expansion In Yinchuan Plain Based On SLEUTH Model

Yinchuan Plain is located in the north of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and is a fertile flat oasis, in which the most important cities of Ningxia, such as the city of Yinchuan Shizuisha,Wuzhong et al., lie, and these cities are crucial for the socio-economic development of Ningxia, so we have to ensure and promote their sustainable development. Using SLEUTH model, this thesis simulated the urban growth process in Yinchuan Plain over the past three decades, and the results of the simulation proved the SLEUTH model's applicability in this region, and then two different scenarios were set to predict the urban development in Yinchuan Plain in future. Combined with its own characteristics in Yinchuan Plain, the dynamic mechanism of urban growth was discussed, and some suggestions were proposed for the future urban development. The main contents and conclusions of this paper were as follows:(1)Remote sensing images was the main data of this study. Combined with DEM,city planning maps and other related data, input data layers were obtained for running SLEUTH model through GIS. By the comparison between Lee-Sallee and OSM index calibration program, it was found that Lee-Sallee index calibration program was more suitable for this study. According to the results of Lee-Sallee index calibration, this thesis simulated the urban growth and land use change of Yinchuan Plain in recent thirty years, and it was found that rapid urban expansion encroached a lot of agricultural land, which was about 235.4km2 and was up to 78.1% of new urban land.(2)Using the best value of growth coefficients which were got through Lee-Sallee index calibration, two scenarios were set to predict the future urban expansion in Yinchuan Plain. Different results of the prediction on these two scenarios showed that urban planning was very useful to guide urban development. Under the guidance of urban planning, the development of cities would be more reasonable and not be uncontrolled. At the same time, the setting of different scenarios for prediction also proved that SLEUTH model was valuable for application to assist with urban planning. (3)Combined with its own natural environment and socio-economic situation in Yinchuan Plain, the dynamic mechanism of urban expansion was discussed according to the results of simulation and prediction for urban expansion. And it was found that socio-economic development and population growth were the main driver of urban growth and other factors, such as the natural environmental conditions,urban planning and policy,transportation and so on, were also very important. According to the problems which existed in the urban development at present, some suggestions were put forward in this thesis.In conclusion, this thesis applied SLEUTH model to study urban expansion of several cities in Yinchuan Plain, which not only verified the applicability of the model, but also expanded the special scale of the model's application, and promoted the domestic study on SLEUTH model to some extent. Moreover, this study had some values for assisting to make urban and land use planning, using SLEUTH model, to guide the sustainable development of cities in Yinchuan Plain.