An Empirical Analysis On The Migration Of Agricultural Labor Force In Chongqing

The countryside surplus labor force shifting to the non-agricultural production industry is the inevitable phenomenon which following the national industry deepen and the industrial structure evolution promotion, and this in turn accelerate the process of industrialization and urbanization. Chongqing is a large city and a large country, it has the typical rural-urban dual economy structure and it is abundant in resource with labor force, but we have to face the serious situation that many redundant people need to move. This thesis is a study on the issue of rural surplus labor transfer about its quantity and inflence factors in Chongqing. The main subject is to estimate the quantity of the surplus labor force in Chongqing. Then compute the grey relevancy about all types of infuence factors, and make the regressive model to analyse the different degrees that every index to the migration of labor force. At last ,we find the determining and restraint factors for rural labor transfer in Chongqing, and to put forward strategic plan and some policy recommendation. In this paper, an estimate is made about the quantity of rural surplus labor transfer in Chongqing, based on the data collected in a survey. Adopting 8 indexes of 3 types of factors , the paper deals with their grey correlation analysis with the number of the whole provincial work force shifting to look for the main factors which influence the rural labor shifts in Chongqing. Using the method of regressive analysis , the paper discuss the different degrees that every index to the migration of labor force in different types. Then we can draw a conclusion and give people some benefit advice to propel the orderly transfer of rural surplus labor in Chongqing.This paper consists of four parts totally:1. The first part is research overview. Based on the survey of relevant theoretical literature and analyzing present status on rural labor transfer, this thesis paper explains some conceptions about rural surplus labor. The conceptions contain the type of rural surplus labor and the type of rural surplus labor migration. The part introduces the background, objective, significance, research tends in China and foreign countries, the main content of the research method and the creative idea.2. The second part construct the mathematical model about labor migration, bases on the method of grey relevant analysis and regressive analysis.3. The third part introduce the agriculture economy condition and the present status of rural labor in Chongqing. On the basis of anlyzing data , it makes use of models to compute the amount of country surplus force in Chongqing. Utilizing investigation data, the paper estimates the transfer scale of rural labor in Chongqing , and then predicts the surplus rural labor force in the future.The result shows there is a severe labor surplus problem in the agricultural and rural sector in Chongqing.analyzes the transfer scale of rural labor and the factors that influence the rural surplus labor migration . First, find out the factors that influence the rural surplus labor migration. They are city factor, institution and policy factor, economic factor, peasant's abilities, scientific and technological progress factor. Then, employing data and choosing the relevant statistical methods, the paper studies the main influential and constraining factors on rural labor transfer in Chongqing with grey correlation analysis and regressive analysis. The result shows the urbanization process, scientific and technological progress factor, the economic factor and they have a deterministic influence on the scale of rural labor transfer in Chongqing. Employing the elasticity analysis method, the paper reaches the conclusion that human capital status of rural labor, urbanization level, and non-agricultural development status have the most important efect on rural labor transfer in Chongqing.4. The last part is the paper's conclusion. It brings out how to transfer the surplus rural labor appropriately. On the foundation of analyzing results about the situation on rural labor transfer in Chongqing, great attentions should be paid to the issue of rural labor transfer in Chongqing, and strategic long-term vision should be maintained to think and solve the issue. Then we gives some advice to accelerate country labor force shifting, such as making policy, speed up civilization, agriculture exploiting, labor exporting, promote the development of economy and science and so forth.