Research On Demand Forecasting System In Supply Chain

Since 80's in the 20th century, people's needs are becoming diversified, the market environment is becoming a complicated dynamic market (Buyer's market) out of the brief static market (Seller's market), and the supply chain management emerges as the time goes. However there are lots of problems in the supply chain management, demand forecasting deviated real market demand, severe bullwhip effects, the high stock costs and low level of service, etc.Along with the changing market environment, the focus of supply chain management keeps its eye to market demand management, pay much more attention react to market, some experts and scholars put forward the concepts of demand chain and supply-demand chain, Its essence is that we pay much more attention to the market demand in the supply chain. The demand forecast is an important part in the supply chain management, in addition it's the origin and base of supply chain management, accurate forecast market demand can minish error degree of decisions, strengthen the service level in the supply chain enterprises and make more economic benefits.This paper with the standpoint of system engineering, combined supply chain management theories, demand forecast methods and Collaborative theories, firstly, analyzed the characteristics and affect factors of demand forecasting in the supply chain, established the demand forecasting system combined with Quantitative forecast and Qualitative forecast under the environment of supply chain, then analyzed Optimizing the system in three aspects which are Quantitative forecast, Qualitative forecast and demand forecast support system, Finally, took the tobacco supply chain as an example for analyzing, results shows that the demand forecasting system works better in practice.