The Study On The Analysis Method Of Project Risks

The risk analysis of the project is a newly arising comprehensive marginal discipline.It is a new discipline developing on managing the foundation that the traditional managing thought combines with modern scientific and technological theory. The risk analysis of the project refers to discerning and analyzing uncertain factors that influence process and the success of the project and the process of making the counter-measures including trying to expand the positive result which is favorable to the project, reducing the negative influence of the uncertain incidents. The risk analysis of the project manages to achieve the goal of project by the greatest extent with a minimum cost by risk discernment, assessment, and control.The project is a one-off course including feasibility studying, funding, designing, constructing, completing, confirming, going into operation, producing and managing. It is also an open system at the same time. While it is being implemented, it is interfered by various kinds of uncertain factors unavoidably, and that will cause the risk that goals of the project, such as progress, quality and expenses, etc. can't be realized. How to discern, analyze and assess the risks of the project efficiently, then tackle and control the risks in the project management demands prompt solution.The main processes of risk analysis of the project are:1.The discerning of constructing projects The analysis of the risk that the project may face is the foundation of risk analysis. The project risk analysis will answer the following questions: what potential risk factors are there in the project? What risk will these factors cause? How about the severity of these risks? To be simple, it is the task of risk analysis to find out the risks and main factors which cause the risk and make the qualitative estimation of the consequence. It is an important step carried out in risk analysis of the project. But it is often ignored so that the range, kind and severity of the risk in the project are exaggerated or narrowed. Consequently, the estimation, analysis and disposal of the risks errancy occurs, the unnecessary loss is caused. Project risk analysis consists of five steps: first, confirm the target; second, ascertain the most important participants; third, collect the data; forth, compute the project risk tendency; fifth, identify the potential risks by direct or indirect symptom.There are many ways to discern project risks among which the commonly used ones are categorized as two classes: analyzing method and expert investigating method: disassemble the project risks according to the law of the business and the individual experience. Analyzing method is similar to the structure analyzing in system analysis. The methods in common use are FAT, table examining, decision-making trees, Scenarios Analysis and task structure disassemble. Expert investigating method includes personal judging, brainstorming, Delphi method, etc.2. Estimation of constructive project risksEvaluation and analysis of the project risk is on the basis of predicting and discern in earlier stage, setting up the systematic model of the question, the impact on risk factor carries on quantitative analysis, And estimate out the probability taking place in every risk and size of loss that may cause, Thus find the key risk of this project, offer scientific basis for handling these risks especially, In order to ensure the harmony of the project. The purpose of estimation of project risks is to further comprehend the project itself and the environment and to find out the feasible scheme, ascertain the influences on other aspects of the project by the uncertainty. Simultaneously, we compare the risks of all the schemes and the routs of acting to choose the one with minimum risk and the maximum opportunity. There are two ways to estimate the risks with probability: one is the objective probability estimate, which confirms the probability distribution by using the history statistic data, the other is subjective probability estimate which means the risk probability is confirmed by the subjective probability. The commonly used ways of risk estimate includes: Subjective evaluating method, decision-making trees, layer-analyzing method, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, FTA, Extrapolation, Monte Carlo Simulation.It is the prerequisites of handling the risks to evaluate and analyze the project risks. It is the scientific foundation of making and implementing the plan. The accurate quantitative estimation must be made to the probability and consequence taking place in risk. But considering history materials are not intact, the complexities of project, the changeable qualities of environment, and limitation of people's cognition, some deviations will appear during assessing and analyzing project risks. How to utilize many kinds of methods to judge in order to narrow this deviation synthetically, the question is worth studying further.3. The manipulation of constructive project risksBy estimating and analyzing the project risks, taking all factors like the probability of risks, loss degree and other factors into account, we can consider synthetically the probability and severity of various kinds of risks. And then compare with the generally acknowledged security index, can define the danger classes of the project, Determine should how many measures does it cost and control measure take what degree does it cost. Carry on the risk and should deal with the plan in just make and implement the risking to the project.The risk should avoid the method including risk, the risk controls, the risk reserves for one's own use and shifts with the risk. Handle the method, various kinds of risks faced toward a project to the one with very different risks, Should use various kinds of methods to be dealt with synthetically. It is the most positive and effective manner. It can not only reduce the loss in risk accidents but also lessen the losing of wealth of the whole society. While implementing the risk-dealing scheme, risk manager should be informed with the changed situation instantly so that he can deal with the risks under the new situation. Risk-dealing scheme should be adjusted to adapt to the situation and to reduce the loss caused by risks.Analysis of project risks is to appropriately analyze and evaluate the uncertainties in the project, the influences caused by those uncertainties and the influence extent. Risk analysis makes the cost estimate and process arrangement more practical and reliable. It helps the decision maker realize the risk influence to the project and the interaction among risks and make perfect contingency measures. It also helps to improve the decision-maker's ability of decision making. It can be classified into two categories: Qualitative analysis and Quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis includes: Delphi method, FTA, Extrapolation, Subjective evaluating, Brainstorming. The fifteen main quantitative analyzing methods are: Sensitive Analysis, AHP, Monte Carlo Simulation, Decision-making trees Analysis, Fuzzy Analysis, Controlled Interval and Memory Models, Influence Diagram, and so on。In order to make risk analysis and estimate more accurate, experts bring forward FAHP model. In this thesis fuzzy layer analysis model which is based on the Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Comparative Theory is mainly introduced. It works according to the Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Comparative Theory, comparing various project risk factors in pair and set up triangle fuzzy matrix, compute the comprehensive important grade compared with other factors. Then they will be polarized and weight vectors are acquired. Multiply the weigh vector of estimate index to the general object by the weigh matrix of estimate target to estimate index, we have the general taxis vector. Calculate the comprehensive scores of the estimate targets under the general object. Ultimately we get the importance of each risk.With a view to the diversity and the complexity of constructive project risks, the author integrates the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation with FAHP arithmetic, and ameliorates the traditional FAHP arithmetic so that it suits the constructive project risk analysis better and can swell the applicability and accuracy of the project risk analysis.