A Research On The Risk Early-warning System In Financial Holding Company

Since the 1990s, financial liberalization sweeping the globe, developed countries having financial deregulation, financial innovation, and a modern financial system has undergone profound changes. United States, Britain, Japan and other countries have continued to carry out financial reform, and gradually achieve comprehensive management of the financial industry. Along with the development of China's financial industry and mature, comprehensive management of China's financial industry has become the trend of development. Financial holding company is a financial institution to increase its strength to cope with fierce competition and getting rid of the crisis and adopt an innovative organizational form, the financial performance of the Group of focus. Financial holding company ,because of its access to economies of scale, the scope of economic, and can be an immense advantage of synergies, is now in the world is rising rapidly.Financial holding company has certain advantages in the operation and management, but it also faces a number of risks, but also their risk than the harm caused by large financial institutions in general. In summing up the definition of financial holding companies, on the basis of mode of operation, from the external environment and internal operations of the financial holding company will not only faces such as market risk, credit risk, operational risk and a series of financial institutions to the general professional risk, but also, because their organizations structure and the complexity of the distribution of shares, which have a lot of professional financial institutions do not ,has the special risks, such as the risk of transmitting, affiliated transactions, conflict of interest, monopolies and other risks.Through the financial holding company special risk analysis, comparative study advanced foreign financial risks early-warning methods used to explore China's financial holding company the earl-warning risk system, so for China's financial holding companies to provide the healthy development of the theory and reality of relying on reference. Based on the United States Karl model; select the risk early-warning indicators, the use AHP model of the financial holding company of the main the risk early-warning indicators of the relative weight of the financial holding company structure the risk early-warning models, and different ways of handling of the differences.In order to model demonstrated the feasibility of the risk early-warning , select CITIC financial holding company, empirical study by the Centre of financial holding company financial statements, in accordance with the risk early-warning model, the financial holding company that CITIC is now in a normal state, a strong operating results strengthened risk the feasibility of the risk early-warning .