The Research On Multi-Project Scheduling Forecast Model In Mass Customization Enterprise

Mass production and flexible small-scale production were the effective methods in 20th century. However, they can not control changeable market in today's world. Enterprises must have the both characteristics, mass production and flexible small-scale production. So they develop diversified, personalized and cost-effective products to lead consumption. And they use economies of scale to occupy more market share. Therefore, mass customization mode (MC) of production came into being. In MC environment, products are custom-made. Enterprise manufactures these products in mass production. However, traditional management doesn't fit. Project management is an effective way which is applied to MC enterprise. Based on multi-project schedule control and characteristics of forecast in MC enterprise, our paper constructs the grey dynamic forecasting method, which is appropriate to multi-project schedule forecast and can control multi-project schedule dynamically in MC enterprise.The research direction of this paper is the multi-project of mass customization enterprise. The core content is the schedule forecasting model and control. Based on analysis of the mass customization, multi-project and GM (1.1) model, the concept of mass customization is defined first and the features of mass customization are analyzed. What's more, in MC enterprise, the features of multi-project forecasting are analyzed and summed up. Secondly, project schedule forecasting methods are compared. And grey dynamic forecasting GM (1.1) model is proposed, which is suitable for multi-project schedule forecasting of MC enterprise. Mathematical mechanism and features of the GM (1.1) model are discussed. Through analyzing the traditional GM (1.1) model, the paper expounds the defects of traditional model. From the aspects of conformation of background value and time response letter, traditional GM (1.1) model is double optimized. The double optimization GM (1.1) model is called GMD (1.1) model.At last, the paper demonstrates the effectivity of the model by using case and its superiority by contrast new GMD (1.1) model with other models on simulator deviation. The results demonstrate that improved GMD (1.1) model has a high forecasting accuracy with undulating date and has a wider coverage. The model can satisfy the multi-project schedule forecasting demand in MC enterprise. According to the analysis in chapter 3.2, the paper gives some suggestions about multi-project schedule control in MC enterprise. By combining qualitative and quantitative methods, the paper tries to achieve effective control of multi-project schedule in MC enterprise and offers MC enterprise effective indemnification instrument to make sure delivering product on time.