Economic Valuation And Risk Analysis Of Zhuzhou Southern Wind Power Generator

Based on the deep understanding of the economic evaluation and risk analysis of both domestic and foreign projects, this paper analyzes the project of the industrialization of Zhuzhou southern wind power generator by both qualitative and quantitative method.Zhuzhou South Wind Electric Motors Co., LTD, is the leading enterprise in electric engine tracting electric power locomotive and the transformer production. Delicated to the research and development of electric engine and transformer, it has succeeded in independently developing several types of electric engines, alternating direct current tracting engine for gas-engine, alternating synchronous electric generator, alternating brushless exciting motors, electric magnet and Linear Electric Machine specialized for maglev train, YJK High-pressure Electric Machine series. Besides, the asynchronous wind power generator, whose intellectual property rights were owned by this company, has already been put into production in batches, which built a solid foundation for the successful entry of the company into the industry of wind power electric machine.First, this paper makes an overview of the study of the economic and risk evaluation of both domestic and foreign projects in related literatures. Then a brief introduction of the project of the industrialization of Zhuzhou southern wind power generator follows in the third chapter. In this chapter, by the integration of both qualitative and quantitative method, the feasibility of project is evaluated in term of its profitability and solvency from the perspective of economics. The result shows that the the selling profit rate of the project reaches11%, investment profit rate amounting to 55.23%, term of the debt being 3.16 years, NPV 227237.9 thousand yuan. Since the investment rate of return is higher than expected return rate, and its payback period is short, this project is ideal in terms of all the financial indices, therefore, this project is economically feasible.The fourth chapter employs the fuzzy evaluation system to determine the risk of the project under analysis. The result indicates that risk probability of the project is determined on the general level. Thus the project is feasible in term of risk. If classified at large, the technical risk, market risk and management risk are relatively larger, compared with capital and environmental risk. Finally, in the last chapter of this paper, the corresponding risk control measures are proposed in the last chapter based on the foregoing analysis.