| The development of real estate industry is not only an important pillar of the national economy and plays a decisive role in the development of the national economy, but also one of the main carriers of the bubble economy. Recently, when China's real estate market rapidly developed, the real estate prices are rising rapidly and the buyers can not load to be tolerated. Otherwise, it will lead to the birth of the real estate bubble and the accumulation. At the same time, the real estate industry is a strong association industry, and its development is closely linked with many industries. Once a bubble float until the rupture, it also will trigger the financial crisis and affected social stability. Historically, Tokyo's real estate bubble burst 10 years led to the development of economic stagnation is a painful lesson. Warning to the carts division, we should learn from teaching, as far as possible to avoid the real estate bubble burst.This article is based on the above reasons, takes real estate development of Hangzhou as an example, starts studies of "real estate bubble early warning system" theory and practices to look forward to the healthy development of China's real estate market to make a contribution. Firstly, review of the real estate bubble at home and abroad and discusses in detail on early warning systems of the real estate bubble and the bubble warning system related concepts. Secondly, in the previous system of indicators on the basis of early warning indicators, dividing the real estate bubble into four major categories: the early warning indicators of investment, the production type of early warning indicators, the transaction type of early warning indicators and the financial early warning indicators. Then, using the introduction of principal component analysis in primary indicators select 12 secondary indicators. Finally, in accordance with the characteristics of the bubble early warning systems, introduce genetic neural network (GANN model) model to the real estate bubble in the early warning system. According to model ideas, editing the corresponding procedures to the real estate development in Hangzhou examples of the application of the model, and based on an analysis the results of Hangzhou real estate issues and made a recommendation to countermeasures.Through in-depth study of this subject, mainly in the following results:(1) Using the real estate cycle fluctuations theory, theory of sustainable development and prediction theory to select key indicators based on the real estate bubble in the previous system of indicators. It will make more scientific and rational system of indicators.(2) Analysising of genetic algorithms and neural network advantages and disadvantages of the foundation, establish the genetic optimization neural network real estate bubble police intelligence forecasting model (GANN model). Then using Matlab 6.5 completed GANN real estate bubble of the early warning computer models. That has enriched the real estate bubble police intelligence forecasting methods provided reference draw for other similar problems.(3) Using the model to evaluate the real estate situation of Hangzhou in 2002 to 2006 and to forecast police intelligence of real estate in 2008. It is verify the reliability of the model. According positive results of the analysis on real estate development of Hangzhou basically consistent with the actual situation, it shows that early warning system established by the feasibility of the results for Hangzhou authorities in suppressing the real estate bubble decision-making According to early warning and analysis of the model results, Propose the relevant policy recommendations on real estate bubble of Hangzhou . |
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