| Fertilizer played a very important role in keeping society stable and economy development.Economic and reasonable fertilization was better for improving fertilizing profits and reducing environmental press from unreasonable fertilization.Otherwise,the status of fertilizer supply& demand is in connection with regional agricultural production nearly,which not only determined whether farmer has enough fertilizer,but also can farmer fertilize for crops in first time.thereby,It was very significant to study on economic and reasonable fertilization,the market balance of fertilizer supply&demand in regional scale.Based on the agriculture statics and farmer survey data,the agricultural production status,fertilizer consumption and crop application rate,regional fertilizer supply&demand balance,the change of fertilizer consumption frame in main grain crops were analyzed in Northeast area,Huang-Hua-Hai area,Middle and lower of Yangtz area, Southwest area,Hua-Nan area,Northwest area through adopted data comparison and time series analysis methods.The results were as follows:1.The fertilizer consumption annual growth rate all exceed 5%,the growth rata of Northeast area,Huang-Hua-Hai area,Middle and lower of Yangtze area,Southwest area,Hua-Nan area,Northwest area arrive at 5.5%,6.6%,5.5%,5.3%,5.6%,6.8%, respectively.Potash and compound fertilizer increased rapidly,but nitrogen and phosphorus consumption has increased slowly and toward stable from 1979 to 2005 in the six region.The nitrogen consumption still was largest and the phosphate and compound fertilizer was the second variety.The nitrogen consumption growth rate increased slowly after 1995 in each region except Northwest,but the potash consumption growth rate exceed 9%and the compound fertilizer consumption growth rate exceed 15%in all regions.2.The fertilizer was consumed mainly by grain crops in all regions,the consumption proportion on grain crops accounted for 59%in northeast,48.2%in Huang- Huai- hai, 54.2%in Middle and lower of Yangtze,58.5%in Hua-Nan,59.7%in Southwest and 67.8% in Northwest area,respectively.The nitrogen and phosphate application rata was surplus and potash application rate was deficiency.According to expert's recommendation fertilizer application rate,the nitrogen and phosphate consumption could decrease 157.4×10~4 and 111.4×10~4 t,but need increase 607.0×10~4 t potash to sustain the demand for economic plant development in 2004.3.The fertilizer consumption time was focus in eight month from March to July and October,which was different due to the different agricultural condition and planting crops in each region.The Urea,Ammonium bicarbonate,Compound fertilizer,SSP(Single surperphosphate),DAP(diammonium phosphate)were the main varieties which accounted 21.2%,24.8%,26.5%,14.7%,7.2%for total consumption in 2004,and were consumed in Huang-Hua-Hai,Middle and lower of Yangtze,Southwest area,Hua-Nan area.4.The fertilizer self-support rate of Northeast area,Huang-Hua-Hai area,Middle and lower of Yangtze area,Southwest area,Hua-Nan area,Northwest area arrived at 35%,97.6%,90.6%,205.9%,42.6%,154.7%in 2005,respectively.the fertilizer surplus province increased to fourteen in 2005 from nine in 2001.Comparatived to 2001,the self-support rate of Huang-Hua-Hai area,Northwest area,Middle and lower of Yangtze area increased by 20.6%,37.4%,19.0%,respectively,but the demand gap in other areas was extended stage by stage.The nitrogen surplus in Huang-Hua-Hai area,Middle and lower of Yangtze area,Southwest area,Hua-Nan area,Northwest area arrived at 356.7×10~4t, 121.9×10~4t,318.8×10~4t,321.4×10~4t,whereas the gap in Northeast area,Hua-Nan area arrived at 88.8×10~4t,97.3×10~4t.In addition,the phosphate fertilizer supply&demand balance was deficient totally except Middle and lower of Yangtze,Southwest area.The shortage for potash in all regions except Northwest was seriously and extended due to the increased demand in future.5.The comparison results for yield and fertilizer application frame in wheat,maize, rice in Hebei,Jilin,Sichuan between 2000,2002 and 2006 based on the farmer survey show that,the maize fertilization was transacting to decreased nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer application rate and increased potash consumption,moreover,the DAP and Ammonium bicarbonate was substituted by Urea.The Urea was the main fertilizer on rice of Hebei and Sichuan,which accounted for 58%in total nitrogen nutrient consumption,the phosphate and potash still was the DAP and compound fertilizer and that compound will become main fertilizer.Comparative to expert's recommend fertilization,the grain crop application rate was transiting to reasonable fertilization.6.The planting area of wheat and rice decreased,as reverse the area of mazie,fruits trees and vegetables increased annually from 1995 to 2005.the change for planting frame did not lessen the total fertilizer consumption but transacted to Rigid growth by economic crops drived.7.For regional fertilizer market management,in short time,It was suggest that the grain crop demand still was the first concerned and recommended reasonable application rate,developed different fertilizer varieties according to the change of crop sown frame and farmer fertilization behavior,moreover,exploited the organic fertilizer to decrease the dependent for phosphate and potash.Otherwise,the nine month,except March,October and November should become fertilizer hive time,and arrange the fertilizer transportation and sales in the periods.In long time,it should build a 10 Mt nitrogen hive base at Northwest,Huang-Huai-Hai,Southwest area and the Huang-Huai-Hai area should become compound and mix fertilizer manufacture flat,and build phosphate and phosphate rock hive base at Sichuan,Yun-nan,Guizhou of Southwest.In addition,the Qing hai and Xinjiang should become potash research and develop base.For sake of the fertilization profits should introduce BMPS(Best Nutrients Management Practise)while extended soil testing and recommendation fertilization technology. |
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