Risk Analysis And Control On Xi'an Base Project Of Daqing Perforating Charge Plant

The rapid development of technology and productivity makes human live in a complex and capricious era, face multifarious risks, so we need to manage risks scientifically. The risk management for construction project has become the important part of project management. Although the risk of construction project is difficult to predict, we can avoid disadvantageous condition and reduce loss to gain anticipative purpose, by analyzing earnestly and managing scientifically the risk of project.Daqing Perforating Charge Plant (DPCP) is now establishing the manufacture base in Xi'an, in order to solve deficient productivity, and develop the leading business, fulfill the increasing need of perforation equipment and gain the new economic increasing point. Being the main body of the project, DPCP is charge of wholly programming, investment managing and capital running. After selected, the contractor by bidding, the contractor should carry on construction, installation and commencement the project according to the contract, until the project is checked and accepted and relegate to the owner. There must be many uncertain factors and diversified risks in constructing and manufacturing stage of the project. So risk management from investment decision-making to manufacturing is very necessary for the project.For above issues, the writer will make out effective measures to avoid and monitor the risk, so as to guide practice in effect, by analyzing investment surroundings, distinguishing and evaluating risk.Firstly, analyze investment surroundings of Xi'an base. DPCP is overrunning to fulfill the increasing need of perforation equipment. According to civil explosives equipment trade regulation, the manufacturers are forbidden to overrun without approval. The productivity of DPCP is about 1,800,000 shaped charges annually from the aspects of insure the quality and safety. Through SWOT analysis, DPCP should take the strategy of adding investment; enlarge production and increasing the market occupation rate. At the same time, by analysis the target market and supply and demand trend in relevant trade of Xi'an base, It comes that the product demand of Xi'an base's target market is blooming through analyzing Xi'an base's target market and predicting the market need of West China and Middle Asia.Secondly, analyze project risk of Xi'an base. The project has five risks: technology risk, safety risk, quality risk, market risk and capital chain broken risk. Technology risk includes applicability and dependability risk, and risk brought by new technology; Safety risk includes construction safety risk, manufacturing safety risk and pollution risk; Quality risk includes engineering and manufacturing quality risk; Market risk includes product price decreasing, raw and processed materials price increasing and product saleroom reducing; Capital chain broken risk includes lack of capital risk during constructing and manufacturing. Through balance analysis and sensitive analysis to perform the risk evaluation, when the annual productivity reach to 60.7% of the design capability, the project have a better ability to adapt the changing, and have the ability to bear the risk. In the uncertainty factor of invest, sale price and cost, sale price would be the most sensitive factor. By using the subjective appraisal method to perform the risk evaluation, the total risk of the project is acceptable.The third step is to use Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to perform the risk appraisal on the Xi'an base project. Through building the Hierarchy Process pattern, to get the judgment matrix by Paired comparison method to five risks, and compute the latent root of the matrix, and normalization the latent matrix to get the weight value of the importance sequences. The general hierarchy ordering is defined by computing the relative importance of all the factors in the same level to the highest level. To guarantee the result have a satisfactory consistency, CR<0.1 is needed. By quantity calculation, the project is facing the highest market risk; the second is technical risk and quality risk. The lowest is safety risk and capital chain brake risk.At last , different risk prevent methods are provided to various risks in the project, and use initiative risk self remain method and carry on some risks and make some emergency plan to deal with those kinds of unavoidable and unchangeable risks . Use the defense method to deal with Technical risk, relief and use the risk, lower the possibility of risk occurrence and reduce the risk loss. Use the risk sharing strategy to deal with Construction quality risk, through sharing the self risk of quality stipulated in the contract signed with owner, contractor, inspector and supplier. Use the strategy of risk relief method to lower the risk loss to deal with the Product quality risk. Use the method of transfer the part liability to the contractor and supplier according to the contract article to deal with Safety risk in the construction stage. Use the insurance and assurance method to transfer the safety risk in construction stage. Use the strategy of risk relief and transfer to deal with the safety risk in the stage of operation and possible environment pollution. Use initiative risk self remain method to cope with the risk of capital chain broke as the minimum possibility.The Xi'an base project of DPCP is in main body construction stage, in the stage of design and construction ,used preventing risk methods of inviting public bidding, signing the contract , insurance and assurance to lower the risk occurrence possibilities, proved that the importance function of project risk management. The risk preventing methods suggested in this paper may have a positive guidance function to the further stages of construction, equipment installation, commencing and manufacture.