| Too much real estate foam causes false prosperity and economic foam in the state economy. The fluctuation or even big vibration will occur as a result of the emergence of severe real estate foam, so the early warning for the real estate foam is important and necessary. Firstly, many models and the method are not suitable for our country by the domestic and foreign research on real foam early warning theory, and cann't completely imitate. The scientific and effective early warning system is indispensable to detect and predict the real estate foam. Secondly, the factor analysis is carried on from production, transaction, consumption, finance. The early warning system for real estate foam is presented by the combination of the effect coefficient method and the analytical hierarchy process. BP artificial neural network is trained by history data and carry out a forecast. Criterion regulating the marketplace is proposed on the base of the result from early warning system and can be taken to depress the danger. The early warning system will forecast future trend. Then the commercial building market has been used to validate the proposed early warning system for real estate foam. And the results have showed that the system is effective and applicable. The early warning system can promptly and effectively send out a warning for the real estate foam. Link Hangzhou actual circumstances with the early warning result, the cause of foam is carried out analysis, and gives concrete suggestion that the foam is governed out.It is expected that the research in this paper on the real estate foam can draw much attention on the problem of the early warning of the real estate foam, and provides a reference for the design of the prevention system for real estate foam, and then an available reference for making the feasible treatments. |
