| The experience of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Following the high inflation of the economy there must be the economic conflation, and every intense fluctuation process to some extent destroy the economy and waste the natural resources in a large scale. Like macro-economy, the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of fluctuation. Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, we should analyze the internal factors and external shocks of the fluctuation of real estate industry rely on the data in history and at present, to set up the early warning system by supervising the index system to which relate the real estate industry. We can predict the future economic fluctuation trends with the early warning system and applies it to the economic administration. It is of more important and significance to the development of real estate in China.The purpose of this research is trying to set up a preliminary scientific and feasible real estate market early-warning system that can be used to objectively analyze the running orbit of the real estate. The situation and developing trend of the real estate market could be assessed and judged correctly. The abnormal fluctuation in the real estate market could be discovered and prevented at the early stages. The investment and the consumption in the market can be guided in order to promote the real estate economy running well continuously.This essay probes into the economic early warning system by using theoretic and case studies. The essay systematically analyzes the theories and methods of the early warning system, Through the detailed review to the history and situation of the domestic and international economic early-warning development, the approach of index early-warning has been used to set up the early-warning system. According to the whole process of the real estate's running, this paper chose 13 indicators related to the real estate industry to set up the early-warning indicator system, obtained booming circulation fluctuation data according the long-time tendency adjustment and irregular adjustment; improved the calculation method of the traditional diffusion index, design a new type of integrative diffusion index; set up the a quantitative boundary system of early warning which possesses the function of appraisement, forecasted the prosperity status of the real estate market in future by the method Return Prediction.The Chinese real estate market early-warning system has been applied using statistical data of 1996-2006. The results show that the real estate market of Chinese is in the steady rising development stage. It would progress to more mature stage under the macro-control of government. It is anticipated that the real estate market will steadily develop within the near future and will not fluctuate acutely. |
