The Risk Evaluation Of China Shipping Oil Tanker Investment Program From 2006 To 2010

Along with the grow up of economy integrity in the world wide, the total trend of the world trades amount reports to rise year by year, and the total measure of the world ocean transportation trades also appears obviously rising accordingly .Reported by UNCTAD, about the ocean transportation, above 90% World trade deal is accomplished through ocean transportation. Vessel is an important ocean transportation tool. Shipping businesses can improve the abilities of its operation, benefit and competition by increasing ship investment The ship investment is the material foundation of shipping lasting management and the important premise of shipping enterprise. In this way, it has become the urgent fairs that shipping enterprise work over how to set down satisfying ship investment decision-making rightly through which method.The China Shipping oil tanker investment is a huge and important ship investment project, which not only have characteristics as big capital occupation, shifty profits, long profit-gaining and many indefinite elements, but also resists many unpredictable risks. Consequently, using the scientific and appropriate methods of analyzing risks on oil tankers investment for identifying ,estimating and evaluating every risk in the project is necessary.Firstly, analyze this topic research vein. Starting with the research history and status of investment program, hunt for the entering point of the risk evaluation of China Shipping oil tankers investment projects from 2006 to 2010 along these scientific research achievements.Secondly, introduce in details the context and content of China Shipping oil tanker investment program from 2006 to 2010 and analyze the characteristics of this projects. Based on the point of ship investment projects, the article summarized risk factors of this item and fell into the five major elements and the nineteen sub-elements.Thirdly, point to the superiorities and deficiencies of all the main risk evaluation methods from the angle of fixed amount. Compared with the AHP (the Analytic Hierarchy Process) and others, the thesis resulted that the AHP is multi- attribute Decision -making Theory.Fourthly, establish a AHP Layers Risk Evaluation of all the whole item. The model that its principle expects the minimum Layers risk value composed with the layers of Target, Index and Project. The ordering result show that rejecting the project with the risk influence index by 0.594 will take more dangers than holding on it by 0.406 correspondingly. Consequently, this enterprise should purchase the oil tankers.Finally, the fluctuate of oil transportation price is the biggest risk influence in the all factors and measured what the impact of economic benefit at the different price.The risk evaluation of China Shipping oil tanker investment program from 2006 to 2010 is of significant and learning meanings in practice and improving means.