The Research On The Method Of The Estimation Of Technological Achievements

The estimation of technological achievements is an important part of technological work in our country. It has a vital role to produce the guide function of the technological policy, and combine the technological work with economic development, and promote the personal growth of technological people. The further study on the estimation method of technological achievements is becoming an important content in estimating work.At first, this article summarizes and estimates the previous research by retrospecting classical literatures of estimation of technological achievements in the world.Then, the article thinks about the critic question in the estimation of technological achievements—the research on weight, based on statistic from systemic analysis, including index weight and expert weight. This article discusses a compositive weight from the information content of index, the difference of index and the function of index, by using aberrance coefficient, correlation analysis and path analysis, based on statistical softwares, such as SPSS, Amos, etc. Then it reviews the authority of expert, and constructs dynamic weight of expert based on clustering analysis and reliability analysis in order to fetch up the lack of the condition that the weights are given subjectively by experts.After that, the article construcs a method of blurry estimation based on compositive weight of index in order to satisfy the need of blurry estimation sometimes. But this method is not the same with all kinds of estimation activities, and doesn't think about the authority of expert. So this article adhibits the weight of expert, and construts a method based oncomplex weight to compose information given by experts, and educes the last result. Then it measures the quality of the estimation by coherence analysis and reliability analysis.At last, the article validates the feasibility of the method by demonstration.