The Study On The Monitoring And Early Warning Of Chengdu City Urban Land Price

Since 1980s, the city land using system reform have deepened unceasingly, the city land gradually change the free, unlimited using to paid, limited. The building of china land market has undergone a processes such as collecting state-owned land using tax, the transfer of cities state-owned land right, the Exploit of commodity Houses and so many reforms. The land price has become the important way and tool on land market, for formulating reasonable land price policy, the government must master fully the land price dynamic change and the spatial distribution. Therefore, establishing the city land price monitoring system becomes necessary. Chengdu city has completed the urban land classification in 2000, completed the land price dynamic monitoring system in 2003. The land price dynamic monitoring system has provided the important basis for mastering the city land market price level, managing the city land and keeping the land market in a health and stable level.This paper based on the city land price development reality both home and abroad, using the theories and methods of economic early warning and real estate market early warning. According to many scholars on land market early warning research thoughts, paper vigorously exerted the theories to Chengdu city land price monitoring and the market early warning.This paper is divided into six parts. The part of introduction made a detailed analysis of the research's background and significance, summed up the research dynamics of theories and technologies of monitoring and early warning, The second part according as the reality of Chengdu ,analyzed the scope of this study and introduce the material and dates selection. The third part mainly introduce the process and method of Chengdu land price dynamic monitoring system, And carries on the contrast analysis of previous years to land price change situation and the economical development condition, the fourth part is the core of the paper,based on the current research results, paper discussed the land market early warning process and method, using the linear regression model and gray system GM(1,1)model to simulate the land price change of last years. And judge the warning of the Chengdu land market in current and future. The fifth part exactly analyze the reasons of Chengdu city land price change and the existence question, elaborating land price trend situation in future.The results of the case study on the urban land price of Chengdu city area are:①The land price level of Chengdu city area is reasonable at present, correspond with the social economical development. But exists different development speed in internal different use land price;②The land price level will continue to climb up. But no great fluctuations in short term.