The Research Of The Movement Trend And Forecast Based On GIS Tecnology For The Chinese Ecotone Between Farming And Animal Husbandry

The Chinese ecotone between farming and animal husbandry is the ecological zone of transition between agricultural planting area and the pastoral area connection in China. It is also called half-agricultural and half-pastoral area or the ecological ecotone. It holds the important strategic status in the aspects of the economic, social development, and the environmental protection in our country. What about the distibution was in the late Qing dynasty, what about it will be in the coming 30 years, and what about the law of development is. In this paper, we study the law of development of the ecotone about the geographic distribution. According to the geographic distribution for the ecotone of late Qing dynasty(1900-1930) and the coming 30 years (2005-2035),the change of the geographic distribution is interpreted by computation and simulation based on the advanced GIS technology. We aimed to offer the reference for the research on the Chinese ecotone between farming and animal husbandry afterdays.We first established the databases of nine ecological indexes for the coming 30 years by the Time Series Theory. Secondly, according to the GIS spatial interpolation module, the spatial databases of nine ecological indexes for the late Qing dynasty and the coming 30 years were established. Finally, the geographic distribution of the Chinese ecotone between farming and animal husbandr y for the late Qing dynasty and the coming 30 years was simulated, which was got by the spatial computation ,based on the ecological indexes evaluating model of the ecotone.The main conclusions were as follows:1. The spatial databases of the ecotone for the late Qing dynasty and the coming 30 years are established, respectively, and nine ecological indexes, annual sunshine hour, > 0℃annual accumulated temperature, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual relative humidity, altitude, extreme maximum and minimum temperature, and frost-free days included.2. The spatial geographic distribution map of the ecotone for the late Qing dynasty is simulated. The area(68.78 million ha.) is smaller than that of the present(81.36 millon ha.), refers to 11 provinces, Gansu, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, and 210 counties in all.3. The spatial geographic distribution map of the ecotone for the coming 30 years is simulated. The area(108.60 million ha.) is bigger than that of the present, refers to 15 provinces, Pekin,Tianjin, Gansu, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan and Tibet, and 435 counties in all.4. The movement trend of the ecotone from the late Qing dynasty to the coming 30 years showed that the area was continually increased, and moved forward southeast in the whole for the spatial distribution.