The Research On Financial Risk Pre-warning Of China's Automobile Industry Listed Companies

As China's economy continues to develop, the automobile industry is gradually growing and developing. Because of the rapid development of the automobile industry, enterprises are facing increasingly fierce competition. Various unpredictable factors or control, maybe leads to financial risk, and enable enterprises suffered losses. For the automobile industry enterprises, the risk of financial they face, greatly impact economic, capital market, the interests of investors and social. How to find effective ways to prevent financial risks and crises, making automobile enterprises in the pursuit of better independent innovation and continuous development, are important issues we also need to pay attention to. Based on the auto industry for the sample of listed companies, we selected financial indicators and non-financial indicators of the automobile industry to construct financial risk pre-warning model. This makes the regulatory departments, investors, creditors, enterprises and others timely and effectively to forecast financial risk, preventing further financial crisis occurred is of great significance. This paper intends to carry out the following research:First, Recalling the theory of the domestic and foreign financial risk warning, the development of financial risk warning and forecasting methods ,and summarizes the current questions of financial risk warning exist.Second, sampling the auto industry listed companies. The six non-financial factors are analyzed, include ownership structure, board characteristics, management characteristics, the stock market liquidity, related transactions, and audit opinion. Does empirical research of the relationship between non-financial factors and the performance, introduction of the automobile industry for listed companies in non-financial indicators.Thirdly, through significant testing and principal component analysis the auto industry listing of the company's financial indicators, introduction of the analysis non-financial indicators together, Using logistic regression constructed automobile industry listed company's business model of financial risk warning, as well as the introduction of non-financial companies listed indicators of the future model and the use of financial indicators alone models were compared, confirmed that the introduction of non-financial indicators, enhance the effectiveness warning of financial risk.Finally, to the automotive industry listed companies, the logistic model exist misjudgment, through use the evidence theory method, the extraction of financial and non-financial indicators framework for the establishment of identification, combined evidence theory and expert group decision, construct auto financial risk warning model, further understanding of the operations, added logistic misjudgment deficiencies exist, warning more effectively.