Research On Real Estate Cycle Of Hebei Province

Since the reform and opening up, the past three decades has witnessed the huge development of the real estate which has been the basic and key industries of our national economy. And now it plays an extremely important role in the economical operation. The realty not only can be used as fixed assets, but also can be served as investment to increase the value. That's why caused the realty industries fluctuated periodically. According to the periodic fluctuation, the article aims at analyzing the operational aspect of the realty industries in Hebei from 2004 to 2012.When analyzing the periodicity of realty business, the article focuses on Seven indexes of Hebei, then utilizing the Principal Component Analysis, and gets the Realty Estate Composite Index. So the fluctuated graph can be described to prove the periodicity of the Hebei realty industries according to the realty estate composite index. Making the Interest Rate, Gross Original Domestic Production, Disposable Income of Residents and the Consumer Price Index as the representative indicator of macro economy when analyzing the relationship between the realty estate periodicity and the macro-economy, it can be found that the development of realty estate is not inversely proportional to the interest rate.Sometimes they are in direct proportion. Realty estate periodically composite index has a0.03 co-integration relationship with Gross Original Domestic Production, Disposable Income of Residents and the Consumer Price Index. And when the short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium, it can return to the equilibrium with 0.033 of the adjustment. What's more, the article educes the Granger causal relationship of Hebei realty estate periodically composite index and Gross Original Domestic Production, DI and CPI.Subsequently, proposes the policy suggestions through the economic means, administrative means and legal means.Finally, the paper summarizes the Hebei Province real estate cycle of empirical research conclusions and prospects for future research.There are two innovation points in the article: First, it describes Hebei realty estate periodically composite index; second, it analyses the relationship between Hebei realty estate periodic fluctuation and the region macro-economy, which have provided new idea for the study afterward.