Research On The Financial Pre-warning Of Guangdong's Technology Based SMEs

Technology based SMEs (Small and Mid-sized Enterprises) are the most active and innovational enterprises, and play important roles in the development of social economy. With the sustained and rapid economic growth, a large number of Technology based SMEs have been come into being group by group, Guangdong Technology based SMEs have also experienced rapid development momentum. However, many of them have been in trouble, even no longer in existence. Mainly showing shortage of capital, lacking of surplus. Therefore, the research on Financial Pre-warning of SMEs is more increasing imminence, and a set of available financial forecast system need to be established to forecast, pre-control and dispose financinal risk. At the same time, to the inherent economic and geographic advantages of Guangdong Province, the development and financial risk of Technology based SMEs come into prominence.In this context, this article, according as enterprise early warning management theory, is based on theories of financial management, risk management. Taking enterprise financial risk as research subject, the thesis takes precautions against all kinds of financial risk. I hope this article have use for reference to Technology based SMEs of Guangdong Province.The article firstly makes research on the basic theory of financial forecast, and based on the research, propose two difficult problems on financial forecast. Secondly, the paper analyzes the financing condition and cause of Guangdong Technology based SMEs and make an synthesis analysis on financing risk. Thirdly, based on the research and synthesis analysis, referring to the experience and rule of domestic Technology based SMEs on pre-controling financial risk, applying AHP, adopting financial index and non-financial index, and considering cash flow and the innovational ability of Technology based SMEs, the article establish the indicator system of Guangdong Technology based SMEs. Finally, the paper determines the weight value of the indicators by applying AHP, the Analytical Hierarchy Process and fuzzy method, and makes the indicators quantitative by scoring methods, and processing demonstration research, and provide an efficiency quantity method to the financial forecast of Technology based SMEs. At the same time, based on above research, the article provide pro-control countermeasures on financial risk of Technology based SMEs.