Research On Marketing Enterprise Operation Risks Warning And Forecasting

Enterprise operation risking takes foundation information as foundation. By setting and observing some varieties of sensitivities indexes with early-warning, it implements real time control and forecasts alert about financial risk that enterprise probably or will be face. And then the enterprise can prevent them from risk and control it in time, decline the loss to the lowest degree.In recent years, with the new economy, more and more people have recognized the importance of the enterprise early-warning. It is an important way to find and avoid crisis in the early-warning management for establishing the enterprise early-warning index system and model. Especially, for a marketing enterprise, besides financial risk, in the coming economy the critically factors which affect its operation and risk avoidance, such as marketing risk, management risk customer risk and so on, are becoming more and more important.On the basis of reviewing the major studies and metrics which have been done in area of enterprise early-warning, it pointed out that when construct an enterprise early-warning model, for the whole index system, the former theory, which few consider the difference among the indexes, often use the same model. So this thesis tries to improve the enterprise early-warning model by using different model to fulfill different indexes.As the basis of whole research, the study begins with the key tache of constructing the early-warning model-constructing the enterprise early-warning index system. Researching the selecting principal of early-warning index and the method of constructing model, based on the early research in the early-warning index system, 40 early-warning indexes were selected. For the risk modules, which have both qualitative and quantitative indexes, the thesis uses the Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgment in conjunction with the Analytic Hierarchy Process to do enterprise early-warning. But for the pure quantitative indexes, taking financial indexes for example, it takes the improved Z model, which put the principal components and the host factor together, to do finical risk early-warning. Then the whole risk can be known from each risk value.In the end, the thesis summed up and discussed all the research, and found out the progress and shortage of the research, and then overviewed what should be done in this area in the future.