| This paper firstly used single spectral analysis to analyze the time series of power demand increase rate in our country since the reformation and found out the main-cycle and sub-cycle in the change of power demand. Based on the research of periodic fluctuation in power demand, using the sample data of power demand and GDP increase rate from 1978 to 2005, we also forecasted when the turning point comes out and the degree of contraction and expansion in power demand increase rate in China combining the method of cross-spectral analysis and ARMA mathematical modeling, so it provided reliable, valid reference frame for the intermediate duration and short term-power planning. |
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