Research On Land Population Capacity In Beijing

Based on the development strategy of Beijing city,this study evaluates and analyses the land resource capability of Beijing about present situation and future forecast.Since the face that the problem of land resource has become a"bottleneck"to the modernization construction of Beijing,the study provides scientific theory source for establishing a steady,coordinated and sustainable relationship between population and land use.The advanced theories both at home and abroad such as Resource Scarcity Theory and Sustainable Development Theory are used to evaluate and analyse the land resource capability ,including the population capability of formland , the population capability of urban construction land and using model.Both quantitative and qualitative evaluating methods are employed ,and the former is major.In the population capability evaluation part,the average per food and land area demand is adopted to evaluate the present situation of farmland and construction land capability in Beijing. The conclusion is that the farmland capability has not been able to meet the rural population's food demands,and the existing population scale has exceeded the reasonable capability of urban construction land.There is some construction potentiality in urban land,especially in Built District.Combining above parts,the study uses to evaluate the population capability of formland and urban construction land.With the"Time series"forecasting method,the overload rates of the formland rural population capability in 2010 and 2020 are further lower, the area of the formland are further reduce,the overload rates is keeping on rising.And there analyze the supple of the construction land capability in Beijing capability and analyze the most population scale that can be suppled..At last,based on the land using fact and situation of Beijing city,we can draw an conclusion like that:the formland resource is changing from the work model of the traditional extensive to the type of the modern city in the agriculture.The producing character in urban land is clear.The comfortable living is lack.And the study puts forward some land resource using models in ideals and a series of suggestion to realize the ideal model,especially in farmland and urban construction land using.