| Due to Chinese housing reform and increasing house demand, these years have witnessed great development of residential mortgage since 1998. The data show that the average annual growth rate reaches 84% from 1998 to 2004, much higher than that of all RMB loan in financial institutions. Besides, up to April 2005 the mortgage balance has attained as much as RMB 1674.37 billion. As a crucial part of banking transactions, residential mortgage assists in diversifying bank transactions, increasing bank profit and lowering bank risks. However, residential mortgage is vulnerable to the fluctuation of house price and debtors' revenue, which will induce risks to the whole banking. Therefore, in carrying on residential mortgage, how to guard against or reduce risks, especially the credit risk, is of crucial significance to banks.Based on the research results and international experience in risk management, this dissertation makes thorough analyses on credit risk applying qualitative and quantitative methods: firstly, this dissertation reviews the history of residential mortgage in China, points out kinds of risks especially the credit risk faced by commercial banks, and summarizes the status and characteristics of credit risk; secondly, this dissertation analyzes the reasons for default from the angles of debtors characteristics, debt traits, residential house market and house constructors; thirdly, this dissertation studies how to get quantitative data through Merton model and apply them to mortgage risk management.According to the foregoing analyses, this dissertation suggests some practical measures against default, including establishing personal credit evaluation system,... |
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