The Research On The Theory And Method Of Highway Engineering Enterprise Project Risk Decision

Risk widely exists in various activities of decision-making in enterprises. It also leads to the uncertainty of enterprise's income. There is no doubt that decision makers in the enterprise usually have to confront with many problems of risk decision. However, the highway project is a kind of engineering program with tremendous investment, long period and high risk. Highway engineering enterprise contracts for highway project. So, whether the project is successful or not will influence the benefit of highway engineering enterprise. Therefore, the research of the theories and methods of highway engineering enterprise project risk decision is of great significance.This paper using the risk of definition of the international project management institution, changes the idea that only controls the damage of risk and transfer the risk to the source of income. Furthermore, this paper puts the theories of enterprise-wide risk management and decision together, basing on this a dynamic project risk decision making process of the highway engineering is put forward. In the model, a decision is divided into several dynamic and continuous processes. In the processes we should put emphasis on the project risk analysis. This paper research the approaches of project risk identification, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and risk evaluation. So, highway engineering enterprise can identify risks, meaure and evaluate risk rightly. On the basis of risk analysis, highway engineering enterprise can cull out project which risk is too high. But only considering the amount of risk, highway engineering enterprise often cannot really evaluate a project. According to the actual conditions of highway engineering enterprise, this paper researches the project risk decision methods of single project and multi-project. Thus, highway engineering enterprise can consider the integrated objectives of project and select the best or satisfied project objectively. For the risk decision of single project, highway engineering enterprise is good to carry on the risk discount rate method to choose project. Thus highway engineering enterprise not only considers the profit of project but also realize the goal of risk compensation according to the size of risk. While for multi-project risk decision, highway engineering enterprise can choose the satisfied project with multiple objective risk decision method. Decision maker not only consider the size of income, but also consider other objectives of project.In the end this paper applies the software Crystall Ball in supporting the highway engineering enterprise project risk decision. Monte Carlo Simulation method in Crystall Ball software was not only introduced for quantitative risk analysis, but also for the income of the highway engineering enterprise. The result of highway engineering enterprise income simulation show that the uncertainty of highway engineering enterprise income can...