An Empirical Research On Rationality Of The Composition Of China's Trade Commodities

With the enlargement of our country's trade scale and increase in the degree of trade reliance, the disadvantage of the intensive growth of foreign trade have been more and more prominent, urgently calling for the enhancement in quality of trade growth to strengthen the sustainability. Accordingly, scholars have changed their research point from trade scale to trade structure, therefore, and the composition of trade commodities become at a time a hot point of study.However, despite rich fruits in the research, most of them focus on the analysis on the current situation of trade commodity composition and high-class structure, lacking the study on whether our country's present composition of trade commodities is reasonable and how to adjust it to promote sustainable and reasonable growth of economy, based on the present industrial structure. Based on national conditions, this paper treat the rationality of structure of China's foreign trade commodities from the existing industrial structure and economic growth perspective, in order to overcome the blind pursuit of high-class structure of foreign trade commodities. On the basis of defining a rational structure of foreign trade goods, it is regarded as a fundamental criterion to evaluate the rationality of trade commodity structure whether the structure complies with the improvement of industrial structure and economic needs of the healthy development. Starting from the standard, input-output analysis is chosen as a main method to research the rationality of trade commodity structure on the basis of the comprehensive comparison among previous research methods. The traditional influence coefficient and the sensitivity coefficient are replaced by a improved influence coefficient and a driving coefficient, based on which, the rationality indexes of import and export commodity structure are recreated. Meanwhile, the adjustment indexes of import-export commodity structure are created to instruct the particular adjustment of structure. In determining the meaning, evaluation criteria and methods of the rationality of the foreign trade commodity structure, the article carried out cointegrational analysis of the relationship between the commodity structure of foreign trade and economic growth using the 1985-2008 data of import and export of various commodities and economic growth. It is found that the long-term equilibrium relationship exists between the imports and exports of primary products, manufactured goods and services and economic growth, and the growth of import and export volume for the three categories of goods play different roles in economic growth. From export point of view, three categories of goods exports were tested positive for economic growth, but exports of primary products and services play a greater role in economic growth, while exports of manufactured goods contribute to the minimum. From the import perspective, on the other hand, only the increase in imports of manufactured goods was positively correlated with economic growth, the other two types of products were tested negative. In the calculation of the relevant indexes by 1997, 2002, 2007 input-output table of China, the structural rationality of the import and export commodities over the past decade is tested. The results reveal that the degree of rationality tends to deteriorate after improvement, and the structure of trade commodity need to be improved. Finally, the aims and measures have been put forward to reasonably adjust the structure of foreign trade commodities, based on the cointegrational analysis and conclusions of rational analysis.