Research On The Financialization Of Commodities And Its Impact On China's Economic Growth

With the breakdown of the network technology bubble in 2000,the international futures market is developing day by day,and the demand for commodities is increasing all over the world.More and more hot money begins to pour into the commodity market,and the volume of commodity futures is rising.Since 2004,the international commodity market has shown an obvious trend of financialization,which is called the financialization of commodities by scholars.Especially,as the largest consumer of commodities,China lacks the right to price international commodities,so the sharp price fluctuation brought by international commodity financialization will inevitably have a great impact on China’s economic growth.In this context,the paper first verifies the existence of commodity financialization through empirical analysis,and then analyses two ways of its transmission to China’s economy: one is the futures market,the other is the spot market.The impact of the spot market based on Trade and import on China’s economic growth is analyzed in detail,using the input-output table of 42 departments,all commodity varieties are grouped into one group,the input-output table of 35 departments is compiled,and the non-competitive input-output price model is constructed.Using the international commodity price index rising 33% and falling 15% in 2005-2008 and 2015-2018 respectively,the impact of price changes is introduced into China through imports,and the specific impact on China’s overall price level and economic growth is estimated through further transmission of the domestic industrial chain.The following conclusions are drawn:From the perspective of import trade transmission,33% increase and 15% decrease in import commodity prices in 2005-2008 and 2015-2018 will cause different degree of price rise or fall in various industrial sectors in China.Through weighted industrial proportion and increase-fall,we can calculate that in these two periods,China’s overall price level rises by 2.38% and falls by 1.02% respectively.The empirical analysis shows that 1% price increase will increase the economic growth by about 1.7%.It can be concluded that the changes of international commodity prices in different degrees during the two periods of 2005-2008 and 2015-2018 will increase the economic growth by about 4.1% and decrease by about 1.7%.At present,China is in a period of structural transformation of economic development and strong demand for commodities.Grasping the relationship between international commodity prices and China’s economic growth will provide reasonable and effective policy suggestions for the development of China’s commodity market,which will be conducive to promoting the more stable and lasting development of China’s economic growth.