The Construction And Evolutionary Algorithms For The Complex Network Of Oil Price Fluctuation

Oil price changes with complexity, nonlinear and influenced by various external factors. Based on the symbolic dynamics theory, the paper studies the methods to transfer the sequence to be a complex network, and then analyzed the topological characteristics of the network. These will provide a new way for oil prices study.(1)Using the WTI crude oil prices since 1986 as the research data, which is coarse-grained using the symbolic dynamics theory to get a symbols sequence. Combined of complex network theory, the complex network of oil price fluctuations is built using the 123 fluctuation state as the node of the network.(2)Analyze the topological characteristics of the network. Over 80% of the network's connection are focused in the range [-1,1] between nodes, that is means that the WTI crude oil price will change no more than 1 dollar / barrel within two days with the possibility of more than 80%. Network of oil price fluctuations have large clustering coefficient and small shortest path length. It has small world network characteristics and scale-free properties.(3)The complex network of oil price fluctuations is divided into four different network according to the fluctuations range of the node: normal fluctuations network, minor fluctuations network, significant fluctuations network, and volatility network, and study the topology of the four network. Different networks have different topological features, the normal fluctuations network is similar to the global coupled network, small fluctuations network have the same characteristics as the scale free network, and the significant fluctuations network and volatility network are both similar to the star network the network..(4)Using the probability of the four fluctuations networks and the topological characteristics of the network to study the construction algorithm of the network of oil price fluctuations, and the network is simulated to better reflect the actual network connection properties.(5)Study the connect probability network of oil price fluctuations under the influence of irregularities. Irregularities affect the structure of the network. The article forcast the oil price changes between 2011 and 2012 under the impact of the war, earthquake, and financial crisis.