| In order to determine the "two types of agriculture" comprehensive capacity level and analyze problems in Zhuzhou County, this article first learned the concept of two types of agriculture and relevant concepts. After that, the definition of comprehensive carrying capacity based on "two types of agriculture" has turn out. And than, sum up the main features. Next, the study area in Zhuzhou County, after research and analysis the aspect of economy, population, natural resources and environment in Zhuzhou County, find several main reasons that hinder agriculture development. Meanwhile, collect the statistical data in Zhuzhou County during 2001 to 2008, use relatively simple method to calculate the carrying capacity of resources in Zhuzhou County. Subsequently, in order to calculate more accurate, select 27 indicators of "two types of agriculture" comprehensive carrying capacity, using the maximum value method to quantified and analytic hierarchy process to give the weight. At last, use the state space method to calculate the comprehensive carrying capacity of Zhuzhou County.The main results are as fellows:(1) Take the area of Hunan Province as a reference, the relative capacity in Zhuzhou County in the year of 2003 and 2005 is overloaded. In the year of 2001 and 2004 is full, load. The remaining few years are loadable.(2)The results show that the capacity in Zhuzhou County can carry from 2001 to 2003, but from 2004 to 2008 is overload. Use the Gray prediction model to predict the capacity from 2009 to 2013, the result show that it will continue to overload.Finally, based on analysis of the results, put forward some suggestions and strategies, which will promote the sustainable development of "two types of agriculture" in Zhuzhou County. |
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