Research On The Decision Model On Optimal Stopping And The Model Of Profit Evaluation Of The Account Sale Under Imperfect Information

The shaping of the buyer's market and the increasingly throat-cutting competition both serve as the key reasons for the account sale being the essential selling means for enterprises. Through the credit business, tally enterprises are supposed not only to escalate the sale scale, increase the market share, attract the potential customers, but also to efficiently take the risk of storage under controlled by lowering stocking. However, the account sale would at the same time bring about certain credibility risk costs to tally enterprises, which means that the principal together with the opportunity cost of the account receivable and loss of bad debts are all to be shouldered by tally enterprises. In order to reduce possible risks, the tally company will generally make decision plans whether to conduct credit and when to conduct credit after they do a lot of researches to the target companies. But the fierce competition will make the account sale opportunities disappear at any time, so it doesn't permit companies researching and deciding too long. Judging from this, managers have to grasp and weigh two problems when under the account sale decisions. Firstly, according to the research to the target companies, they have to enhance the whitening degree of decision information and accuracy of profit evaluation to control risks of the account sale reasonably. Secondly, control research time wisely, seize the decision time precisely and avoid favorable business opportunities efficiently. If the problems above could be held properly, corporations will break the limit of trading time and space and hold business opportunities to enhance competitiveness. But if not, corporations will possibly lose business opportunities or fall into business dilemma. Therefore, when confronted account sale opportunities, it is meaningful for corporations how to decide and when to decide to gain profits most.In this paper, the decision-making process of account sale would be regarded as a discrete-time continuous-state process, and the probability of contract-violated enterprises relevant to the tally company along with the disappearance probability of market opportunities would also be fully taken into consideration. Under information entropy and dynamic planning theory, decision model on optimal stopping of the account sale under imperfect information has been established. Meanwhile, we conclude the decision rules in order to enhance the scientific probability and the accuracy of the decision.