Simulation And Study On The Model Of Account Sale Dynamic Decision Optimization Of Products In Their Declining Periods Of Life

After stepping into the21st century, the interactions of the market competition andtechnology update make the product life cycles get shorter. Especially with manufacturerscontinuing to introduce new products into market, at the same time, the demands of the oldsobviously reduction, if the enterprise can not handled properly, on the one hand, it will facethe serious consequences of product backlog, on the other hand, the old products tend to be animportant source of cash flow when products are in a period of recession, prematurely stopproduction and sale is bound to reduce the operating efficiency of enterprises. Therefore, forthe products in a period of recession, how to completely harvest the profits that may becreated, take the necessary actions to make appropriate account sale decisions and effectivelygrasp the business opportunities are extraordinarily significant.This paper combines the characteristics of recession product, take advantage of theDynamic Planning Theory to entirely estimate the profits of enterprises from cash sales andaccount sales, combining with optimal stopping rules and decision-making situations to makedecision behavior. Firstly, set the responding study period, to the market prices and changes inmarket demands of cash sales and account sales to deeply study during this period, andconsider the possibilities of the conversion of sale ways between cash sales and account sales.In the course of the study, it preliminary presumes the price of products and the marketdemand are both negative exponential function about time, the conversion of sale ways ismainly affected by their prices,study periods and the introduced time of account sales in cashsales and account sales. Secondly, take account of the factors that affect the overall profits andintroduce them into the estimation model, such as confirming the function forms of cash salesand account sales, the model includes the access of the effective information amount bydifferent research methods within a limited time, survey costs and preliminarily presumes thatthe possibilities of business opportunities loss are increasing as in-depth research. Again,build the dynamic decision optimization model, on the basis of the profits of grasping thefavorable opportunities and the unfavorable opportunities of the profit estimations, multipliedby the probability of the amount of effective information acquisition, and consider theprobability of business opportunities loss, storage costs and risk loss, calculates the profits ofaccepting account sales and abandoning account sales in all kinds of periods. Take advantageof the optimal stopping rules and decision-making illustrations, decision-making situations tomake decision behavior （accept account sales, continue research, abandon account sales）.Finally, according to the features of recession products and corresponding profit estimation model and decision optimization model, select the appropriate industry or enterprises for anexample, combine with the acquired industry parameters and industry standards（such as theaverage collection period of receivable accounts, variable cost rate, the rate of capital cost） tocalculate and demonstrate. The profits of the first decision-making period separately areV_co（1）=383547.5，V_ro（1）=402147.5； V_co（2）=410123.8，V_ro（2）=439675.8；The profits ofthe second decision-making period separately are V_co（2）=410125.9， V_ro（2）=439677.9；V_co（3）=65000.8， V_ro（3）=120800.8； The profits of the third decision-making periodseparately are V_co（3）=65003.9，V_ro（3）=120803.9；V_co（4）=220430，V_ro（4）=144430；The profits of the fourth decision-making period separately are V_co（4）=220436.1，V_ro（4）=144436.1； V_co（5）=391820.9， V_ro（5）=296820.9； The profits of the fifthdecision-making period separately are V_co（5）=391812.6， V_ro（5）=296812.6；V_co（6）=392112.1， V_ro（6）=278112.1. To take advantage of the decision-making rules ofaccount sales to make a decision that accept account sales in the second period, the practiceshows that the corresponding decision rules are reliable and able to help enterprises accuratelygrasp the opportunity of account sales.