Financial Logistics Risk Measure And Control

In recent years, with the rapid development of financial logistics business, the commercial banks are beginning to scramble to find partners to expend the financial logistics business for profit. But, as the business deeply handled, the risk of businesses are becoming increasingly prominent. The papers of the risk of financial logistics still stay in the qualitative without empirical analysis at present. This paper carries out on the risk of financial logistics with the measurement of quantitative research in order to provide the basis for commercial banks to control risks.This paper has discussed the cases of the risk of financial logistics with the perspective of the commercial banks from the status what the paper summarized. In this paper, we see the business risk and moral hazard as a starting point to establish the game model between the commercial banks and companies to analyze losses of the commercial banks in the process of game. The conclusion of the game model is to establish the long-term cooperative relationship between the commercial banks and companies. And then we use the VaR method to calculate the market risk of the collateral materials which could determine the rate of commodity. The conclusion of the VaR method is reasonable so that it can provide the basis for commercial banks to prevent and control the risk. Finally, the paper gives the policy recommendations to prevent the risk of financial logistics though the case comparison and the causes of the risk.With time-series adjustment models in the GARCH-M model to calculate the pledge rate is an innovative point of this article. But it is a inadequacies in this article with some assumptions to simplify the risk measurement model. Future research can be put on to deregulate assumptions on the model in order to fit more logistics financial model.