The Empirical Studies Of Our National Debt Risk Under The New Situation

Since our country resumed issuing the national debt in 1981, the national debt market developed rapidly. National debt for the development of economy had played an very important role. Especially since 1998, our country began to implement a positive fiscal policy, in which national debt played an essential role on boosting domestic demand,promoting jobs and promoting economic growth against Asian financial crisis and the insufficient domestic demand. Below the violent concussion of the financial tsunami in 2008, our economy was facing severe situation. In this scene, the new policy restarted aimed security of expanding domestic demand growth as our mission in September 2008, instead of firm finance policy in 2005. In the past two years, with further improvement in our economy, certain industry appeared investment overheat and the high CPI growth. At the same time, the fast-growing scale of treasury bonds and the declining in the efficiency of treasury bonds' capital result in accumulating fiscal risks. National debt risk becomes Treasury research hot issue as an important tool to adjust economy again.This article using the mathematical analysis and statistical analysis method by using the statistics from 1990 to 2011, gives empirical analysis on the risk of national debt in China. First, based on the national debt and debt risk and the actual situation in our country, the paper divides the national debt risk into quantity risk, financial risks and use risk. Secondly, compared the international reasonable index with our national economy index, it evaluates national debt risk from the ability of the private sector to buy and the ability of government to repay and the ability of residents to buy risk and evaluates the national debt of our country finance risk based on the inflation and Crowding-out Effects and evaluates of Chinese government bonds use risk by analysis where to go and efficiency. This paper puts forward some policy to reduce national debt risk, improve efficiency of Treasury bonds by combining our country's current macroeconomic environment and economic policies.