Comprehensive Analysis Of National Debt Risk And Countermeasures Providing

Since 1981 when China resumed treasury bonds,treasury bonds play an important role in promoting economic development,and improve the people's living standard.Especially since 1998,in order to fight against the Asian financial crisis on China's economic impact,overcome the insufficiency of effective demand problem,China began to implement the loose,expansionary fiscal policy,debt to expand domestic demand,promote the rapid growth of economy has played a key role,effectively promote the employment.In 2008 due to the global financial crisis,countries began to implement the proactive fiscal policy.With the issuance of treasury bonds has increased year by year,the cumulative balance snowballed,only 30 years,our country national debt accumulated balance up to 7.6 trillion Yuan,up to the end of 2012,China's national debt accumulated balance accounted for 14.8% of the GDP.Such a huge debt,caused widespread concern in the community,many scholars on China's debt risk analysis and research,different scholars demonstrate the effect on the economy from different angles of Treasury bonds.This paper is divided into four parts,the first part is introduction.The introduction of the background and the significance of this study as a whole,then introduces related research on the topic at home and abroad and introduces the main research content and research methods.Finally,elaborated the innovation and insufficiency of this paper.The second part is the theory part,including the second chapter and the third chapter related theory of the risk of national debt risk evaluation method.In the national debt theory part,mainly elaborates the function structure of the national debt,treasury bonds and treasury risk into three aspects of the scale of national debt risk,the maturity structure of the debt risk and risk in use.This paper uses statistical analysis methods,quantitative analysis methods and the analysis of the three aspects of the risk of national debt.Among them,a statistical method is the main use of evaluation index system and AHP method to analyze the risk.Quantitative analysis method is using the unit root stationarity test and counteraction test to analyze the risk.The third part is the empirical analysis,including the fourth chapter which is the analysis of the national debt situation and risk situation and the fifth chapter which is our national debt risk evaluation.In this paper,the different period of China's treasury bonds is divided into short-term,medium-term and long-term three categories.The empirical analyses in Chapter fifth also undertake above were analyzed respectively from three aspects of government debt risk,debt term structure risk and risk in use.In general,our national debt is not at risk.In the analysis of debt maturity structure risk,because China's short-term treasury bonds than Treasury bills and bonds are relatively concentrated,and the repayment interest sometimes will cause the risk of repayment.The empirical analysis of cointegration equation coefficient obtained in short-term debt on government debt service ratio also is 0.44493,and short term debt is too much is one of the reasons of China's debt rate so high.Reduce the amount of debt issuance of short-term,the increase in long-term debt,can be appropriate to reduce government debt service ratio.The analysis of the risk in use,because the foundation of the project profit level is not high,the use of treasury bonds is very low income.The use of government income not directly raises the level of people's livelihood.Efficiency of the use of national debt is low,so it's necessary to guard against the risk.The fourth part is the countermeasure part,including the sixth chapter of risk prevention measures.National debt risk is not always or never,risks may occur at any time.Even if there is no risk does not mean no risk in the future,and it's too late to solve when risks came to,it's better to nip the risks in the bud.The sixth chapter separately from the national debt scale,debt risk and debt term structure risk using the three aspects of risk,proposed to control the scale of treasury bonds,strengthening debt management,optimize the structure of national debt,accelerate the progress of Marketization,strengthen the funds management,and improve efficiency in the use of funds policy recommendations.The innovation of this paper is the debt risk into debt risk,debt term structure risk and risk in use three aspects,from three aspects,using different methods to the analysis of debt risk status,not only with the debt risk on behalf of the national debt risk.In order to eliminate the different approaches to data sources causing index quantity deviation,this paper use the national finance income support instead of fiscal revenue and expenditure.The deficiencies of this paper is because of the data cannot be acquired,selectively ignore China's external debt.And analysis of the use of national debt,because of its economic benefit is difficult to measure,so the Treasury using analytical description is not very thorough,more a lack of convincing.