Empirical Analysis On Risk And Performance Of Our National Debt

Since our country has issued national debt in 1981, the scale of the national debt expanded rapidly, which played an important role in promoting economic increase. Especially in 1998, our country began to practice the positive financial policy under the macro-economical situation which was characterized as the Asian financial crisis and deficient domestic demand . The national debt which was one of the main contents of positive public financial policy played an important role in enlarging domestic demand and promoting economic increase. While the economic situation improveed since 2003, signs of heating began to loom in some industries. The CPI was growing continually ,the steady financial policy was implemented, instead of positive financial policy. In the same time, the fast-growing scale of national debt and the decling in the efficiency of national debt's capital results in accumulating fiscal risks. Being the important adjusting tool of the economy direction, the study of the risk and investing performance of national debt became the hot spot.On the base of qualitative analysis combining correlative academic knowledge of national debt, the dissertation makes the empirical analysis on risk and performance of national debt by using a great deal of numerical and statistical methods. Firstly, Discuss the influence of national debt issue on GDP through regression ananysis between the national debt issue and economic running. Conclude that there has a close relationship between national debt and GDP that be postponed for a stage; Secondly, Estimate the quantity risk of national debt using the grey principal component analysis. Evaluate the financial risk and using risk through the analysis of CPI ande the actuality of national debt; And, Research the performance of national debt through the investing multiplicator,induction degree and the influence; Finally, put forward some policy suggestions.