Study On Analysis And Change Trend Of Land Use Structure In County Region

This article take the Tuoketuo county 1996-2008 year land change data and in 2009 the land renewal cruising data as a foundation, used multiple analysis methods and so on indices, position index, Lorenz curve to carry on the analysis to its present situation land utilization structure; Through to the land utilization structure's rate of change, the differential degree and the intensive degree's content analysis has conducted the research to the land utilization structure's space and time change; In 2015 and in 2020 the land utilization structure has carried on the forecast using the gray GM(1,1) model to the Tuoketuo county, and the forecasting result and the higher authority will issue the target forecasting result carried on the comparison, the analysis has appraised two kind of forecast technique good and bad points. the result indicated:The Tuoketuo county land utilization structure presents the following rule:1. the farming is resides in the first place the land utilization type, the county-wide farming accounts for the total acreage 47.6%; 2. has the obvious region, located at the south middle area's Shuang he Town, the five assorted county and the new military camp town multiple indices is high, otherwise is low located at northeast area's five Shen Zhen and the Gucheng Town multiple indices, this is the Tuoketuo county terrain landform and the regional economies development speed reflection; 3. the overall merit energy balance, looking from counts using the type combination, least has 1 kind, what are most is 4 kinds, other are 2-3 kinds, and basically limits to the modernized agriculture. But land utilization type how many reflection region land integrated function strong and the weak, therefore may say, the Tuoketuo county land utilization's integrated function is bad; 4. has the position significance agricultural land resources to be more complete, this fully had reflected the Tuoketuo county has as agricultural big county is suitable for the develop agriculture, carries on the agriculture large-scale management the land resource complete superiority.5. the Tuoketuo county land intensive degree of utilization had the enhancement. zai weilai ji nian zhong, the Tuoketuo county forest land, the lawn, the use constant area will further not have reduced, the construction land will increase rapidly, the multiple index movements are not big, the information will maintain closely related the situation which will rise unceasingly, the land utilization structure to further the disordering development, but the land combination type will maintain the farming+ lawn+forest land is invariable. The grey model forecast land utilization structural change, under the basic stable land utilization policy, the forecasting result basic can reflect the land utilization structural change the speed and the tendency, and calculates is simpler, is advantageous for the operation, needs the essential data to be few. But the target predict that although needs the massive data and the material, but to constructs the land demand consideration to be fuller, can in satisfy under the plan condition to plan each industry land, but it to forward land underestimate.