Study On Technical Risk Management Of China's Solid-State Lighting Upstream Industry

Semiconductor lighting industry has a long industry chain (including upstream, midstream, downstream, and applications), the technical characteristics of each area and capital characteristics vary greatly compared to other high-tech industry. There need large amount of investment in upstream industries. But it is of lack of technical professional personnel. The technology is difficulty and the investment risk is large, so the semiconductor lighting industry investment risk is concentrated in the upper reaches of the technical risks. This paper focuses on the technology risk construction and quantitative in upper reaches of the semiconductor lighting industry. It uses the means of questionnaires and factor analysis to establish the technical risk assessment system of semiconductor lighting upstream industry, building VaR risk quantification model of the raw and auxiliary materials' supply capacity. Based on this model, empirical analysis was done. Concluding the paper's work, it mainly lies in the following three aspects:1. Constructing the technical risk assessment system of semiconductor lighting upstream industry.According to the technical characteristics of upstream semiconductor lighting industry, technical risk factors were analyzed. Based on the initial technical risk factors, the questionnaire was designed to investigate the related personnel in semiconductor lighting upstream industry. According to the survey, by means of correlation analysis and factor analysis, technical risk evaluation system of upstream semiconductor lighting was constructed.2. Analyzing technical risk's common factors of semiconductor lighting upstream industryThrough factor analysis of principal component analysis, six common factors of semiconductor lighting technical risk was got.It determined the actual meanings of common factors. And according to the size of the variance accumulation rate, it was concluded that "technology adaptability to the market" risk was the most critical common factor.3. The "raw and auxiliary material supply capability" technical risk factors are quantitative analyzed and researched in empirically.According to the technical characteristics of "supply capacity of raw and auxiliary materials" risk factor, the paper used VaR risk quantification model to quantify the risk factors. And through empirical analysis, the quantified total stock risk of raw and auxiliary materials was got.The paper's conclusion provided a reference to analysis of technical risk in semiconductor lighting industry. In a certain sense, it could promote the development of Chinese semiconductor lighting industry.