Assessment And Management Of China's Energy Security Based On Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

At present, our country enters a period for faster development of industrialization and urbanization. while the demand of energy is increasing faster and faster, whether the energy generation structure is reasonable has become a critical issue in our economic development. This paper analyses the present situation of energy supply and demand in China. China is in its midterm of the industrialization and urbanization, the situation of inflexible demand for energy will remain unchanged in the short run. The energy structure mainly relying on the coal is relatively simple, so the energy security is most vulnerable to be attacked. At the same time, oil is increasingly relying on foreign country, and its transit is very single. Based on these factors, the thesis proposes to build the index system of energy security emergency, involves the energy structure index, energy supply and demand index, energy environment restriction index, energy efficiency index and the energy reserves index. To better analyze and understand the factors influencing the energy security,the thesis adopts Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate Chinese energy security. The evaluation results shows that energy supply and demand, energy strategic reserves and coal-dominating energy consumption structure make the most influence on energy security. Based on China's energy security evaluation system, the thesis finally put forward some corresponding emergency management methods of energy security, mainly including four aspects:the decision-making mechanism of engcry security management, supply and demand of energy, energy conservation and pollution reduction, and strategic reserve system. On the one hand, we should optimize Chinese energy structure, develop hydropower, wind, solar and nuclear energy to increase their proportion in the energy production structure and reduce the proportion of coal energy;On the other hand, as the energy shortage in China will be last for a long time, we should also optimize the economic structure and improve the energy service efficiency to improve the security of our energy structure at its root.